Talking about global warming and world growth.

Discussion in 'The big picture' started by Michaelangelica, Feb 5, 2010.

  1. Michaelangelica

    Michaelangelica Junior Member

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    TRANSCRIPT
    https://www.abc.net.au/rn/backgroundbriefing/stories/2009/2592909.htm
    PODCAST
    https://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/rn/podcast/2009/06/bbg_20090614.mp3

    There is a way out, says Paul Gilding and he talks about how he again found optimism.

    Paul Gilding: This is why. Because human ingenuity is absolutely extraordinary. And when we put our minds to it, we do incredible things. We are extraordinary as a species and we are able to transform situations and problems into solutions in amazingly quick time. But we don't do it until a crisis hits. So I would describe, if I were to summarise a couple of million years of evolution, we're slow, but we're not stupid. We are slow to respond, we deny, we avoid, we try and get distracted but in the end we're not stupid, and we can work out how to fix things, and we are going to fix this one. We're not going to fix it in time to save all the Pacific Islands, we're not going to prevent major conflicts, we're not going to prevent sea level rise from occurring, but we are going to fix it, because we're capable of fixing it, and everything in history says that we are capable of fixing it.

    I think this crisis that's coming, I would think seeing its here now we don't see it yet, but we will see it. This crisis that's coming is going to trigger the biggest transformation in civilisation's history, and I don't mean in Western civilisation's history, I mean in the history of humanity as a species on earth. This is going to be fast and furious and incredibly exciting. It's going to happen soon in an economy very close to you, and you are going to see amazing things happen, and we're going to look back and say, 'That wasn't so hard. Why didn't we start it earlier?' That's another conversation. But we are going to look back and say 'That really was quite simple.'

    Now I give you as an example - it's not a good example but it's the best example we've got. That is the Second World War. Denial, avoidance, the data was clear, very fateful of what was coming, 'No, it's not. No, it's not. No, it's not. Oh shit, yes it is, it's here.'

    Now what happened then was just as an example, to give some numbers around it, in the US, right, they went from 1.4% of GDP being spent on the military in 1939, '38, '39, to 37% by 1945. This is not percentage of government spending, this is percentage of GDP focused on the war effort. Just in the four years after Pearl Harbour they had a tenfold increase inflation adjusted in the amount spent on the military right, on security issues. They transformed the auto industry to producing guns and cars and tanks right, for the war effort, right to be an armaments manufacturer. In nine months. right? So specular transformations can occur when we decide to act, right? And so we are absolutely capable of it. The challenge we have is we're going to have to do it that fast, and then we're going to have to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere to turn it around again, which we're also capable of doing, which I'll come to shortly, but we are going to have to turn around that fast.

    I think it's important that we learn to celebrate the unknown of the future, right? This is going to be an amazingly exciting time and most people want to know how it's going to unfold and how we're going to fix it. And I'm here to tell you today that we don't know how it's going to unfold, and I find that amazingly exciting. This is the biggest opportunity for creation right, in humanity that we've ever had, and we are going to do extraordinary things, but we don't know what that looks like, but we do know some things about how we're going to get there.

    The other reason we're not going to collapse is we know how to fix it, right? Let's be clear on this. We can totally fix this issue with all currently invented technologies. We don't need to invent anything new to fix this. Nothing. Now we are going to invent some new things, we're going to do it faster and cheaper and da de da de da but we don't need to do any of that, we know how to fix it, we know how to do zero CO2 energy for example. Right? We know how to do it actually quite cheaply, relatively speaking, I mean yes, it's going to be more expensive than coal without a carbon price for now, but I think it's very hard not to accept that when you're given a choice between your power bill going up and destroying civilisation, I think it's a reasonable trade-off, right? Including if you're in poverty in China, by the way, because if you're in poverty in China and your choice is to be rich for ten years, which is glorious as we were told by the Chinese President some years ago, being glorious for ten years and then having your civilisation collapsing is not a good outcome for them either. And this is actually very important, that we know how to do this and we know how to do it at a little bit more of a cost and it'll become cheaper anyway, but the point is, even if it costs twice as much or three times as much, you can't argue that we can't do that. And we know how to do it, I mean for example last week they announced another 200 or 300 megaWatt power station in California, with solar thermal power, right? Baseload solar thermal. So really complicated technology. I had one when I was a kid, it was a magnifying glass, I magnified the sun into a concentrated area and I used to light bushfires with it, you can't do that any more, it's illegal apparently, but I used to light bushfires with it, they weren't very big I wasn't very good at it but the magnifying glass was amazing, it concentrated the solar power into a very small area and the leaves started burning - really excellent fun. So that advanced technology, now applied for heating water rather than lighting fires in the backyard of the house at Adelaide, is going to be used to heat water and create steam to drive turbines, again a very old technology. Now how do we store it? Really complicated: salt. Right? Salt is good for you, salt is the storage mechanism for solar thermal heat, right? And molten salt is what it becomes, and then you get the molten salt you reheat the water, you drive a turbine at night. Really simple stuff, and it's about 20%, 30% more than competitive technologies which emit carbon.

    So, easy stuff. Cars. We're going to have electric cars. Electric cars and battery-changing stations. You drive into the service station, a machine comes out, takes your old battery out, puts a new battery in, you go and buy your pie and your coffee, probably be a tofu burger and a glass of water from a whatever it is. If you're lucky. But the point is that we can do that. It's going to take a few minutes, and it's not going to cost you any more money, right? Because electricity is a much more effective, more efficient transmitter of energy than petrol is. So even with coal, right, you save money and save emissions with electric cars, we're not going to do it with coal for reasons that are obvious.

    And if you have any doubts that we can do this, I mean just think about these things: I mean just astronomical. I mean the human brain has problems, it keeps on going to sleep and I can't see what the time is, but the idea that I can have the internet in my pocket like this, in my shirt pocket, right, when 20 years ago that was incomprehensible. And we're going that dot com thing, right, just for fun at the time, created this so think about the dot com boom, think about that and what I call the dot com boom on steroids with military support. Right? That's what we're going to have. We're going to have the most amazing array of technologies and incentives and passions, driven towards solving this issue. These guys did that because they thought it was really cool, right? And it was really cool, and it was really fun, right? to be in that revolution in technology driven out of California and they did amazing things, and they really enjoy the disruption they caused to old companies. That was their entertainment. Right? Disruptive technologies, right, throw this up in markets works incredibly well, it's a very powerful way of driving change, and that's our model, but it will be in steroids with military support because they will now be doing that sort of approach, but they'll be saving the world at the same time. Right? So to be rich is to be glorious in California, they've got a 90% CO2 reduction target. And they are going to drive amazing things as a result of that if they can out-compete the Chinese which I think is now a bit of a question.
     
  2. Yukkuri_Kame

    Yukkuri_Kame Junior Member

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    Another moron who believes that we will find an ecological way to consume limitlessly. Do not share his enthusiasm. I am every bit as optimistic, but I am certain the solutions are not technological, but are about finding out what enoughness means.
     
  3. springtide

    springtide Junior Member

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    I like enthusiasm for the future but i have to agree with Yukkuri and i still see the same problems with electrical infrastructure (power generation and transmission) Vs electric cars. I'm going back out to the veggie patch...
     
  4. mischief

    mischief Senior Member

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    I think there is more to the problem than the releasing of noxious chemicals into the atmosphere and more to the solution too.
    Unfortunately I also think we are too late in correcting the situation and will continue to be on the recieving end of mother natures bad temper for a very long time.
    The human species is as someone said here recently- a weed or rather a viral infection, that simply isnt doing this planet any good.
    I would like to feel enthusiatic about electric vehicles but the simple fact is that everything we create is petrolchemical based.
    All very well having your car run off the grid but in order to make the car and all its components, petrol in some form is needed.
    Until some very bright spark comes up with an alternative to this and lives long enough to get it up and running main stream, the situation is just going to get worse.
    By cutting down in consumables- recycle, reuse or just do with out what you dont really need- its just delaying the inevitable.

    The problem wont be fixed by just not ever buying a new things ever again including new cars.
    Less trees means more co2 more co2 means the trees take up less water or use what they get more efficiently means more runoff.
    chemicals into the ocean and disgustingly raw sewage dumped in the ocean means the temperature and texture (for want of a better word)
    changes the makeup of the ocean and thus how it behaves.

    The sun heats up solids... land, concrete, water, vegetation; it doesntneccessarily heat up air.
    We would have to remove metal roofs, concrete and ashphalt roads,stop burning anything at all just for starters and we will still be on the recieving end of major climate changes and weird one extreme to the other seasons.

    I cant see any solution that is going to work and do so in my lifespan.
    I do what I can to try to make a differnce but I know thats mainly to make me feel better and not really changing anything at all.
     
  5. Mechandy

    Mechandy Junior Member

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    Be Very, Very Afraid!

    This man actually gets to air his propaganda on mainstream media. No wonder, because Peter Gilding is an insult to anyone who thinks.

    This is now the second article to appear in a thread, that quotes World War Two, and the magical 'resilience' and or 'transformational economic growth' that came as a result of it. Hell Man, 50 - 70 million dead, but by crikey would you just look at how that sucker of an economy grew, hoooooly doooooly, git me another war!'

    A.J.P Taylor was roundly criticized when he first published his book 'The Origins of the Second World War' in 1961. Today, he is recognized as one of the greatest and most factual historians that ever lived. His book, not only investigates the causes of this stupid event, but demonstrates clearly how it could have been avoided. I wonder what answer we would get if we asked the 40 odd million civilians and 20 + million soldiers who died during this war, what they thought of our 'resilience' and the 'economic growth' that came from this 'most opportunistic' event.

    Why the hell are we giving these con artists time and space on this forum?

    Anybody, ANYBODY, using WWII in the way that Gilding and Hopkins are, have only one intention in mind, to take money from unsuspecting individuals in return for hope, one of the oldest con-jobs ever invented.

    THIS, is what happens when people rely on hope and resilience and then turn a blind eye instead of taking action to stop what they know is coming: (Milton Mayer - 'They thought they were free, the Germans', 1938 - 1945)

    'What no one seemed to notice was the ever widening gap between the government and the people. And it became always wider. The whole process of its coming into being was above all diverting, it provided an excuse not to think for people who did not want to think anyway. Nazism gave us some dreadful, fundamental things to think about & kept us so busy with continuous changes & crises & so fascinated by the machinations of the “National Enemies”, without &
    within, that we had no time to think about these dreadful things that were growing, little by little, all around us. Each step was so small, so inconsequential, so well explained or, on occassion, “regretted”, that unless one understood what the whole thing was in principle, what all these “little measures” must some day lead to, one no more saw it developing from day to day than a farmer in his field sees the corn growing. Each act is worst than the last, but only a little worse. You wait for the next and the next. You wait for one great shocking occasion, thinking that others , when such a shock comes, will join you in resisting somehow. You don’t want to act, or even talk, you don’t want to “go out of your way to make trouble.” But the one great shocking occasion, when tens or hundreds or thousands will join with you, never comes. That’s the difficulty. The forms are all there, all untouched, all reassuring, the house, the shops, the
    jobs, the mealtimes, the visits, the concerts, the cinema, the holidays. But the spirit, which you never noticed because you made a life long mistake of identifying it with the forms, is changed. Now you live in a world of hate & fear, & the people who hate & fear don’t even know it themselves, when everyone is transformed, no one is transformed. You have accepted things you would not have accepted a year ago, things you're Father could never have imagined.'

    If you know that you can prevent something from happening by taking action before it happens, why in the World would you need hope or resilience?

    As for the rest of his article, I find his take on electric cars as convincing as his argument supporting economic growth through death.

    Andy
     
  6. Michaelangelica

    Michaelangelica Junior Member

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    Paul Gilding
    https://paulgilding.com/cockatoo-ch...ancial-crisis-from-despair-to-excitement.html
     
  7. Yukkuri_Kame

    Yukkuri_Kame Junior Member

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    So much for the recession curing our consumerism... :(

    We can only hope, all the anti-corporatism going about lately will eventually translate into anti-consumerist behavior.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/05/science/earth/record-jump-in-emissions-in-2010-study-finds.html?_r=1
     
  8. springtide

    springtide Junior Member

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    The other thing extreme optimists forget is that to have a WW2 type revolution you need cheap resources like oil, water, land, etc and if a few people starved in the depression afterward there would be hundreds of millions this time - there are just more people owing a higher percentage of their earnings to the bank on tiny blocks of land with more reliance on finite resources supporting their numbers. Then there is the replacement of democracy with plutocracy - would big business even let this revolution happen?
    Panic gets you nowhere but neither does putting your head in the sand.
     
  9. Ludi

    Ludi Junior Member

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    We won't know unless we try.
     

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