Peak Oil & Post Peak Oil Changes To Society Articles

Discussion in 'The big picture' started by Jez, Jun 28, 2006.

  1. Michaelangelica

    Michaelangelica Junior Member

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    Crude is available on line at the catalyst site.
    i don't know how long it will saty there (usually 4 weeks)
    You may like to download it and send to friends if you have the capacity

    This was an interesting take on organic farming and global warming, I thought. (From the Terra preta list)
    No thread here just on organic farming? I guess everybody just assumes it?
    Sean has give me permission to reproduce it here
    [/quote:2z1fv233]
    send any comments to ([email protected])
     
  2. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Dave Cohen has a good article currently on the ASPO-USA website which is well worth a read...especially for those who are fairly new to this topic:

    On the Likelihood of Peak Oil (click to view)

    Lots of other new articles, but nothing earth-shattering which by and large hasn't already been covered and/or discussed...so I'll save all our time by leaving them out. :D
     
  3. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Richard Heinberg has released an update on the Oil Depletion Protocol which is highly recommended reading (as usual with Heinberg):

    The Oil Depletion Protocol: An Update (Click To View)

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    James Ward, Convenor of the ASPO-Australia Young Professionals Working Group, has prepared a document outlining practical steps that individuals can take to respond to the threat of Peak Oil.

    Sections include:
    Transportation
    Shopping
    Growing Your Own Food
    Advocacy

    You can download the 7-page PDF Here (Click)

    Personally, I think a number of the "practical steps" are only practical in the short term (if that), but it's a good document for those who think along similar lines which has a stack of useful links included.
     
  4. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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  5. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    OPEC is on the warpath again...it's a good way to hide their inflated reserve estimates and the fact their production capacity is poised to go into major decline isn't it?...blame their customers for shifting a tiny portion of their fuel needs to biofuels, then pretend they've cut production by choice in retaliation. :wink:


     
  6. blinkblink

    blinkblink Junior Member

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    Here is a Irish doco on Peak Oil that was shown the other night in Ireland.

    RTE
     
  7. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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  8. christopher

    christopher Junior Member

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    BTW, Jez, welcome to the rarified airs of the kiloposter club! Fitting it would happen in here on peak oil!

    Onya!
     
  9. ho-hum

    ho-hum New Member

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    Jez,

    Congratulations on joining the 1000 club and 1000 good posts too.

    If you took the bulltwang outta my 1000 posts I would be up to about 150 by now... :D :D I am comforted though by the notion that 'it takes all types to make a world'.

    cheers

    floot
     
  10. Sonya

    Sonya Junior Member

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    Thanks Jez for all the great articles on peak oil. Slowly but surely its getting out there. Today on the ABC website there was a story about 'Transport Poverty' a new social problem that's been identified at a Victorian conference.

    Here is the link; https://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007 ... 963181.htm

    I'm trying to get some peak oil action happening in my local area. I'm starting a new course based on David Holmgren's text (with David's consent) and addressing the social reorganisation needed to prepare - much along the lines of what Rob Hopkins has done in Kinsale and continues to do now in Totnes.

    Also set up a website https://www.seac.net.au to try to encourage the community to get on board. We have the use of the building at the local community gardens to use - so we are in a great position to get this started.

    On a positive note, we have great support from the Local Council (Maroochy) and the local uni for the projects - the course, a new energy action centre and getting energy descent action planning up and running.

    Cheers,
    Sonya
     
  11. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Cheers Chris...you know what they say about any club that would have me for a member?... :wink: :lol:

    Thanks Floot, I don't think you're a kiloimposter...:lol:...you've contributed loads of great info and assistance to the board.

    My pleasure Sonya...I think you're right, people are becoming more aware. Shame we couldn't have harnessed PO to the high publicity Climate Change bandwagon, but never mind, we'll get there...hopefully before reality makes it all too obvious.

    The whole transport poverty/mortgage poverty phenomenon Kunstler and others predicted years back is really starting to take hold lately...arguably even more in the US than here...but we have plenty of vulnerable people. There's a post somewhere on this thread to an Australian study about the most vulnerable suburbs of each city by debt load and commuting costs/lack of public transport. I don't know if you checked it out, but it's a great visual aid to put that whole message across to those who should hear it sooner rather than later.

    Best of luck with the new group and website...I think you're on the right track with Rob's groundwork and David's thoughts on the subject. Great work and congratulations on being so well organised and advanced even at this early stage. :thumbright:

    If I can help in any way feel free to ask.

    -----------------------

    Just a little tidbit for today on Shell's progress with its giant white elephant 'shale oil' projects in Colorado:


    This is the 'oil of the future' folks...the same stuff the number manipulators keep inflating declining oil reserves with and using the fudged stats to tell us everything is fine.

    That 'oil' is going to come very slowly and very expensively...if at all...and quite probably at a very high environmental cost.
     
  12. Sonya

    Sonya Junior Member

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    Jez,

    Thanks for the words of support, much appreciated - you feel like you're pushing the preverbial uphill most times but then I spare a thought for people like David Holmgren, Richard Heinberg and Colin Campbell who have been talking about this for ever..

    Re the PO and CC information. I come from a background of communications; analysing public opinion, monitoring topical issues, developing key messages etc etc.

    I think the big difference between these two issues, from the publics point of view is that while both are quite abstract to most (not really seeing the effects or not connecting events directly to these issues) and they are both complex, but climate change is an environmental issue - so making changes means animals and plants survive - change your lightbulb and save the polar bear.

    Peak oil on the other hand is so entrenched in political deception and is so, so interconnected with global economies, the truth may never really come out.

    If John Howard had a problem admitting climate change existed, imagine him admitting PO exists? Not likely.

    Cheers,
    Sonya
     
  13. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    I think there's a strong possibility that from a general public perception PO will be buried in a myriad of other more easily grasped reasons for oil decline Sonya - uncooperative producer nations, geo-political factors, oil companies etc 'holding the public to ransom'...at this point (and most likely future points in time), admitting they hadn't forseen PO would be tantamount to politicians admitting they'd overlooked something they should not have missed. Much easier to blame something they 'couldn't possibly have forseen.' :wink:

    --------------------------------------------

    First up today, a rather amazing and groundbreaking admission from Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (renowned for its radically over-optimistic predictions about global oil supply):



    Amazingly honest (refreshingly so) comments from an organisation usually so ridiculously optimistic (and proven so over and over again in their 'predictions').

    Given a several year time lag to actually scale up Iraqi production, the current security situation there, plus the fact Iraq's parliament looks increasingly unlikely to do what the US want and take a very minority share while the US companies get filthy rich(er) getting the majority of oil revenues in return for infrastructure investment, I'd say counting on threefold production increases from Iraq by 2015 will be a very forlorn prospect.

    ------------------------------

    Interview with Rob Hopkins and our very own Sonya (posting above) regarding creating local EDAP's (Energy Descent Action Plans) - well done Sonya:


    Creating an Energy Descent Action Plan - stream, download or transcript (Click To view options)


    ------------------------------------


    And finally, a June 2007 Peak Oil overview for beginners/intermediary people and anyone wanting a refresher - concise and well done IMO:


    Peak Oil Overview - June 2007 (Click To View)
     
  14. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Euan Mearns at The Oil Drum has collated "50 links to Oil Drum articles from the past year is provided which combined provide a comprehensive overview of the issues surrounding peak oil and energy decline."

    Some links are already on this thread or within the forum, but it's a good one to bookmark and check out anyway - very comprehensive overview:

    Click Here For the 50 Links

    ---------------------------------

    The MAV (Municipal Association of Victoria - Australia) held a conference recently entitled The Challenge of Global Warming and Peak Oil for Local Government. (at least one level of government has made the association between the two! :D)

    As you'd expect, there is a bit of disinformation and outright fantasy solutions here and there from certain speakers and special interest groups, but on the whole the conference is very interesting, worthwhile reading, and a good starting template for anyone directly involved with or seeking to influence local councils.

    Each speech presented at the conference is available as a transcript in PDF format, and available for download at the link below:

    Click Here For Main Page To Download Speeches From
     
  15. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Dave Cohen has written an article for ASPO-USA entitled "Peak Oil Down Under" which gives a very good overview of (declining) domestic Australian oil supplies in coming years, plus general comments on Australian governmental response to Peak Oil:


    Peak Oil Down Under (Click To View)
     
  16. ho-hum

    ho-hum New Member

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    Good thread,

    Keep up the good work contributors - especially JB and Jez.

    Is anyone else here suffered ''Peak Oil Fatigue''. I find it annoying that we have the information and the only thing that seems to be happening is that govts etc are looking towards $100 per barrel, to curb demand, as the only real fix-it they have on the horizon.

    Does our government even have a plan for this contingency?

    A bit of good news I did hear this week is that the price of fresh milk will rise due to increased farming costs. I cant remember the last time that farmers got a raise on the back of costs. Generally speaking for the past 30 years it has all been about 'economies of scale', 'cost cutting', and productivity increases due to hard work or some scientific breakthrough.
     
  17. Sonya

    Sonya Junior Member

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    Qld Govt are hosting a roundtable of 160 business and community people to prepare for 'the long haul on climate change' in august.

    The keynote speaker, Prof Thomas Homer-Dixon is discussing peak oil too. He authored a book called The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the renewal of Civilization. He discusses the scarcity of oil (interesting terminology) and global climate change and talks about the extraordinary opportunities we are presented with.

    "We need to get as many heads working on our energy, climate and security problems as possible. We need to initiate an explosion of experimentation, learn rapidly from our failures, and communicate rapidly our successes across broad social networks. And we need to get ready for a future of enormous volatility - and enromous possibility."

    His keynote address is Breakdown or Breakthrough Systemic Crisis and Renewal.

    discussion leaders include Ian Dunlop from ASPO and Morag Gamble from SEED International.

    I've received an invitation to attend and will let you know the outcomes.

    Sonya
     
  18. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    In a word Floot, no. :D



    From what I've read, farmers are still absorbing more than their share of increased costs - i.e. not being able to pass on the full impact of the increase. I've forgotten where I read it, but I do have a link to the paper...somewhere. :wink:

    -------------------------

    Article by Dave Cohen discusses The National Petroleum Council (NPC) report "Facing the Hard Truths About Energy" and explores the history and likely future for EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) with regard to the notion it can make up some of the coming shortfall in global oil supplies:

    Exaggerated Oil Recovery (Click to view)



    Chris Nelder discusses the rather shocking (yet refreshing) recent IEA (International Energy Association) "Medium Term Oil Market Report":

    Oil Supply and Demand: The IEA'S Come-to-Jesus Moment (Click to view)


    And finally, a full transcript of the recent Le Monde interview with Fatih Birol from the IEA:

    Le MONDE discussion with FATIH BIROL (Click to view)


    It would seem even two of the most optimistic "anti-peak-oil" groups (the NPC and the IEA) now sit largely in agreement with many of the assessments made by the most respected Peak Oil campaigners and writers.

    Even if they're pretending they don't. :wink:
     
  19. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    A general article which depicts the difficulties oil companies are facing ATM:


    And a prediction from Goldman Sachs that $100 a barrel oil is probably only months away (unless OPEC increases supply - which it probably can't, and almost certainly doesn't want to anyway):

    $100-a-barrel oil may be only a few months away (Click to view)
     
  20. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    This probably doesn't strictly belong on the Peak Oil thread, but it's so interrelated I thought it was appropriate.

    First is an article about the paper, below is the link to the paper in full for those who would like it:



    And a link to the PNAS website where you can download the full PDF from (located in the menu at top right of page):


    Quantifying and mapping the human appropriation of net primary production in earth's terrestrial ecosystems (Click to go to download site)
     

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