Peak Oil & Post Peak Oil Changes To Society Articles

Discussion in 'The big picture' started by Jez, Jun 28, 2006.

  1. gnoll110

    gnoll110 Junior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2006
    Messages:
    88
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Hi Jez & All

    Was after anything Brigalow Belt, as it's a large Bio-Region (related series of bio-regions really) extending from south of Dubbo in central-western NSW to Townsville on the north Queensland coast. Anything that might note things and relationships that might be useful in design (partually Zones 4 & 5).

    Yes, it my understand that reseves have not been this low since the first oil shock in the early 1970s.


    Gnoll110
     
  2. bella

    bella Junior Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2005
    Messages:
    79
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Douglas, why didn't you hit send? Jez deserves thanks, LOL. I think (hope) others feel the same way and were too shy to post too. I'm sure Jez won't mind a bit of encouragement for his efforts. :D

    Thanks again, Jez. Oh, and I found a great oral history of the Depression era called Weevils in the Flour. Thanks for that too. And the kids and I are reading some fiction as well.
     
  3. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2005
    Messages:
    1,335
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    G'day Gnoll,

    Haven't got anything that specific and haven't been able to find anything...if you're up to speed on global grain levels and rising input costs then anything I have found or had probably wouldn't be much use.

    I'll see if I can come up with something on diversified inter-cropping specific to grain farming in your sort of climate.

    G'day Bel,

    Yep, Weevils is a pretty good reference. I found a recommended reading for the GD from USYD (Click Here) which you might also find helpful - as I think I said before, most of the info available is in academic libraries which the public can't access (unless you happen to know someone with a student card!), so that makes things a bit tough.

    Might be a few things on that list available in the public library though...the journal articles obviously won't be (and they are often the best), but the books listed (particularly the social impact section) could well be worth a try (Wheatley, Potts, Spencely, Cannon particularly) . Both the ones in the 'essential reading' are good for a big picture overview.

    ---------------------------------------------


    Link to a few Heinberg audio interviews on various topics including Powerdown and The Oil Depletion Protocol (Click Here)

    Plus an article from Kurt Cobb which is a good overview on wildly fluctuating energy markets and the reasons behind this phenomenon:

    Mr. Market, manic-depressive: Is there a cure? (Click Here)
     
  4. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2005
    Messages:
    1,335
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    For those interested, Google Video has Colin Campbell's 'The End of the First Half of the Age of Oil' available to watch - (Click Here To View Video)

    Campbell is the founder of ASPO (Association For The Study Of Peak Oil) and the video is from a conference called 'Fuelling The Future' held in Kinsale during 2005.
     
  5. fiona

    fiona Junior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2006
    Messages:
    96
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Not sure if this link has already been posted - its a few yrs old, but I just stumbled across it and found it very interesting reading. A different approach from most of the articles and books, but quite compelling.

    https://www.richardheinberg.com/archive/110.html

    "A Letter From The Future"

    Fiona
     
  6. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2005
    Messages:
    1,335
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Thanks Fiona...yep, Heinberg has a knack of putting things brilliantly.

    Which brings me to his new book - The Oil Depletion Protocol - a plan to avert oil wars, terrorism and economic collapse - and a review by Rob Hopkins from Transition Culture (Click Here for the Transition Culture homepage).

    Click Here for the book review

    ---------------------

    Also, an important article by Luis de Sousa which looks into:

    There's a fair bit of data in the article, and it is a pioneer study meant to provide a rough idea rather than attempt a perfect analysis, but it is the first study to take into some account the likely (and current) rising consumption in oil producing nations as they begin to receive more income from their exports.

    It also provides a good pie-chart breakdown of world oil exporters, their production rates and other useful data.

    Personally, I think some of the data is very optimistic in places - as the author and the sources he's drawn from concede - but still paints an important picture.

    If the article is a bit much for some, scrolling down to nearly the botoom of the page to have a look at Figure 23 and reading the conclusion is a good summary.
     
  7. fiona

    fiona Junior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2006
    Messages:
    96
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Has anyone read "The Oil Depletion Protocol" yet? Any comments on it? I've seen it promoted, but have a bit of a backlog of books for the moment and wondered if it was worth getting.

    Fiona
     
  8. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2005
    Messages:
    1,335
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    There's an audio lecture or full transcript with Heinberg outlining his ideas regarding The Oil Depletion Protocol available here (Click Here to go to download page) Fiona, and included is David Holmgren's accompanying lecture on Permaculture responses to Peak Oil - from their recent Australian tour.

    Obviously the book is more detailed, but if you just want the gist of it the lecture is all you really need.
     
  9. fiona

    fiona Junior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2006
    Messages:
    96
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Finally watched End of Suburbia right through today and have also started reading Powerdown - both things I've been trying to get to for a while. Both seem very worthwhile. Hoping End of Suburbia will make some of the info more accessible for people who aren't interested in committing to reading up about Peak Oil. Has anyone else used it to show friends/family who have been uninterested to help them see what the problem is? Any comments on results?

    Fiona
     
  10. newcroft

    newcroft Junior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2006
    Messages:
    123
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    I haven't shown The End of Suburbia (EOS) to anyone yet, but I can tell you it had a big impact on me. Although I've been 'green' for a while, I didn't really know much about permaculture until after watching EOS. That changed very very quickly. I realised that the current economy is going nowhere fast with peak oil approaching, so I'm currently learning all I can about sustainability and permaculture.

    I'm keen to have some public showings of EOS, and would love to hear if anyone here has held public showings, along with getting local media involved etc.

    I have some friends who will be showing the doco to a large group of their church soon. It will be very interesting to see how they go.

    BTW, can't wait to see "The Power of Community - How Cuba Survived Peak Oil". Perhaps it's no good just showing the problem, some real solutions have to be suggested as well.
     
  11. fiona

    fiona Junior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2006
    Messages:
    96
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Yes, I was thinking that End of Suburbia has a big focus on the lead up and background, a bit on what may happen, but not much on options for after. Was wondering about trying to do a series in a local community centre or something like that.

    Fiona
     
  12. newcroft

    newcroft Junior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2006
    Messages:
    123
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    A group in Tasmania is actually doing a series of peak oil doco's now. Check this out;
    https://www.aspo-australia.org.au/Refere ... ochure.pdf
     
  13. greeny

    greeny Junior Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2006
    Messages:
    64
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    It took me about 5 hours to download 10 minutes on internet here, but it looked pretty good and I decided it needed circulating so I just ordered it from Byron Child. Ill be getting it to as many people as I can. I also ordered the Power of Community which sounds very positive. I haven't seen it yet.
    My advice is Be bold, take it to community active people to start with. Like neighborhood center , if you don't get positive response don't give up. Make a public showing. Advertise it, have tea and coffee after. see what happens. I would like to eventually reach a teacher or two and then schools. I do feel it is important for people to see possible positive outcomes and a path to work towards. So that is why I hope to motivate a few active types first.
     
  14. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2005
    Messages:
    1,335
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Yeah, it's occasionally a bugger not having broadband or ADSL eh Greeny?

    -------------

    A technical data article from The Oil Drum to complement the last one I posted a link to...lots of facts and figures which assess the production decline of those countries we know for sure are in decline.

    Why We (Really) May Have Entered an Oil Production Plateau (Click Here to view article)

    ---------------


    There's a book that's been recently released entitled Peak Oil Prep which some people may be interested in. A blurb and list of topics covered is available here (Click Here to view).

    I haven't read it, so this is not an endorsement or recommendation - just a heads up. Anyone who gets hold of a copy, please feel free to share your thoughts on the info within.
     
  15. derek

    derek Junior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2004
    Messages:
    17
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Hey Jez,

    I too appreciate all the resources you have been sourcing and posting in this thread - really useful reading. Again, I really liked the article on health care post-peak and from a permaculture perspective. The more I think about it, the more I feel that health care provision to those who need it will be a really huge issue in the next three or four decades.

    I have an old book called 'The Universal Home Doctor' which I think dates from the 1920s or 1930s. It is full of really simple (and some complex) ways to treat common illnesses, sprains, wounds, chronic complaints etc. Most of the remedies are a combination of hygeine, nutrition, good nursing techniques, rest and careful monitoring. What strikes me most of all, reading the book, is the wholistic approach it takes to health and recovery, including prevention. Perhaps we will have to rely more and more on this type of home medical treatment in the future.
     
  16. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2005
    Messages:
    1,335
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Cheers Derek, glad you're enjoying it. I linked to another article you might be interested in on the Greer thread where we were discussing this that you might like to check out (incase you missed it), plus here (Click) and here (Click) are a couple more recent ones you may find worth a read.

    We've got TUHD - it's a good resource I reckon. You're right about the wholistic approach...I was reading a book a while back about Hippocrates, Herophilus, Erasistratus and some of the very early physicians...these blokes were very limited in their understanding of the human body, but again, the wholistic approach (especially prevention, diet, surroundings and use of placebo to help with a positive patient mindset) went a fair part of the way.

    --------------

    Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) have just released a report which is critical of what it calls 'peakists' and Peak Oil theory in general.

    The article and a good followup is available at Energy Bulletin (Click to view)...a few snippets of the after discussion:

    Seems like more smoke and mirrors from another organisation purporting to be reputable, releasing 'debunking' press statements, yet hiding their actual data behind a $1000 dollar paywall. No doubt there will be some who pay the money (probably while CERA laugh all the way to the bank! :lol:) so we'll no doubt hear more on this 'debate' - where one side makes the other 'pay to play' - shortly.

    Just thought I'd include this on the off-chance it's a big hit with the mass media over the next few days.
     
  17. murray

    murray Junior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2004
    Messages:
    460
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Today, the Cambridge Energy Research Associates released a report dismissing the Peak Oil theory, suggesting that world oil production will continue to increase for the next 24 years, and then only level into a plateau.

    The report, which suggests that world reserves are enough to last 122 years at our current rate of consumption, also blasts Peak Oil theorists for repeatedly making unscientific predictions and then shifting them whenever their predictions fail to materialize.
     
  18. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2005
    Messages:
    1,335
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    I take it you missed my above post Murray? :D

    Is your last paragraph a quote from an article you haven't linked to or that I have missed, or your opinion?

    -----------------

    There's been numerous responses to the CERA press release over the last 24 hours or so, I'll link to a couple below.

    I'll add a few of my own thoughts first in summary, some of which are echoed in the linked articles below...

    Perhaps the most glaringly obvious 'stupidity' from the CERA press release occurs when they state that the notion of a peak is 'a dramatic but highly questionable image'...and yet their own graph (figure 1 from the press release) confirms exactly that image plain as can be. Rather than 'debunking' Peak Oil, their own graph confirms it - the only actual difference of opinion being that they think 'non-conventional' oil sources will fill the breach once 'conventional' oil peaks, and that this will help provide for a longer total production plateau.

    It's a nice comforting thought to assume non-conventional sources of oil can fill the breach once 'conventional' oil peaks (as the CERA graph demonstrates), but what do current facts regarding production levels tell us?

    Oil shale currently provides the world with 1/10,000th of its oil needs. Global production has never been more than 25,000 bpd (barrels per day). To ramp up to a tiny 100,000bpd, Shell is currently building a 1200MW powerplant - which will make this project the largest consumer of electricity on earth (see Peddling PetroProzac below for more details). All recent shale extraction projects have had massive cost blowouts (see past articles on this thread), while other supposed 'non-conventional saviours' have similar or worse problems with the bottom line.

    The very few 'scientists' railing against Peak Oil theory like those at CERA are great at telling us there's no need for alarm because there's plenty of oil sources left in the ground, then drawing pretty and comforting graphs , but typically short on the details of how and when it can be accomplished, the EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested) equation for these future projects, and most importantly, what the end cost will be to the consumer.

    Having consistently failed to produce any data of the above nature, it is patently dishonest of CERA to claim production can continue expanding.

    As the CERA press release shows, the US has the largest shale deposits in the world. Why then have they since the 70's imported vast quantities of oil from the other side of the globe and spent further trillions trying to secure access to it? Because it's massively expensive on the EROEI scale, and requires stupendous amounts of water and electricity to produce. The only reason US oil giants are now doing it is because rather than spend further billions on exploration in what limited areas remain open to them (80% of remaining global reserves belong to national companies and are off limits to Shell, Exxon etc), they are gambling on making wringing blood from a stone at home work - their limited future depends upon it.

    In short, the US oil giants have pumped the vast majority of the 'easy' and 'cheap' oil they can get their hands on, and are now gambling that they will be able to pull off a massively expensive, resource intensive technology which can surpass the production levels of all the easy oil they're now (as proven by the fact they're undertaking it at all) close to exhausting.

    CERA, again dishonestly, uses Hubbert as the leading proponent of Peak Oil, effectively debunking a bloke who made incredibly accurate predictions considering he did so in an age where he was working with a slide rule and pencil - rather than a computer. Yet, there again, large as life in the 2nd CERA graphic from the press release, is confirmation of his method. The Hubbert predicted decline in production may be out in terms of number of barrels produced, but it is almost spot on in terms of the curve - they are practically identical.

    Rather than challenge the wealth of data from present day Peak Oil theorists, CERA would rather nitpick at the work of a man who had extremely accurate predictions for his time - again, as their own graphic confirms - and pretend that his work is the cutting edge of Peak Oil theory, rather than what it is...a very accurate theory for its time. What CERA has done is analagous to attacking the ancient Greeks because they were out by a few miles when they predicted the circumference of the earth so astonishingly well, and pretend that nobody has revised and refined the measurement since.
     
  19. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2005
    Messages:
    1,335
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    [cont]

    Following the 'Hubbert deception', they attempt this gem:

    Who exactly are these mysterious "those who believe?" Would a credible scientific organisation directly refer to a piece of work, or a person, instead of offering up a vague "those who believe?" Then follow up with an equally vague "many petroleum geologists" - utterly failing to account for the fact that 'many petroleum geologists' are leading Peak Oil theorists? It's difficult to believe they were merely not willing to 'name names' out of professional respect after their attempted slur on Hubbert.

    Funniest of all in the above quote, is that they credit the mysterious, unnamed "those who believe" with the belief that there are 1.2 trillion barrels of conventional recoverable oil left, then attempt to paint this belief as "pessimistic" because of the amount of unconventional oil left! :lol:

    Evidently they have a moron for an editor, or have equal difficulty with presenting an honest statement as they do presenting honest science which takes full account of the facts. And this is just the abridged press statement...goodness knows what type of spin and BS the actual report contains.

    Anyway, I could go on all night, but I'll leave it there and post the following links for those who want to read further:

    Peddling PetroProzac: CERA ignores 10 warning signposts of peak oil (Click to view)

    peak oil: the last skeptics capitulate (CERA) (Click to view)

    More links on the 'CERA debate' in coming days...but I'll leave you with an article and quote from a REAL petroleum geologist (who I'm even willing to NAME :lol:) - Keith Skipper, the Managing Director of NorthStar Energy Pty Limited Sydney, Australia:

     
  20. murray

    murray Junior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2004
    Messages:
    460
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    sorry - yeah - i did :(
     

Share This Page

-->