Peak Oil & Post Peak Oil Changes To Society Articles

Discussion in 'The big picture' started by Jez, Jun 28, 2006.

  1. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Chris Nelder from Energy & Capital has posted extensive notes on every presentation from the recent ASPO conference for anyone interested - 47 page PDF:

    ASPO Notes (Click to download)

    David Clarke has commenced a series of articles on the new Oil Drum (Australia New Zealand) website, which will discuss:


    1. Where are we, how did we get there, what’s in our immediate future? The next 5 years in Australia.

    2. Scenarios and threat analysis. Australia out to 2020.

    3. Social solutions and personal preparations.


    First article is available now and further updates as the next two are posted:

    Australia: The Place To Be (Part 1) - (Click to view)

    Personally, I think the article is overly optimistic about mostly the wrong things (not saying there isn't cause for optimism, just that it's founded on some shaky things in this instance) and not entirely accurate, but it has certainly sparked quite a bit of debate which is interesting in and of itself...particularely when viewed through the 'lens' of Permaculture.
     
  2. Jen Mazer

    Jen Mazer Junior Member

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    Hi
    I have noticed on this sight animosity toward "offsetting".
    I am trying to figure out the difference between carbon "offsets",
    carbon "trading", and "cap and trade". I think I do not understand because
    of math issues but I also think I don't understand because these simply do not make sense. They stink of consumerism and a market attitude.
    How are these issues supposed to make sense?
    Rising Tide North America has a great article on a "Greenwash Guerilla"
    event that took place today.
    Partial quotes from an email they sent me.
    From Greenwash Guerilla David Lee-"Gifting free, tradeable property
    rights to worst polluters does little to ensure reduction of greenhouse gas
    emissions. Carbon trading, and the Lieberman bill are a subsidy for big
    polluters disguised as a climate protection measure."
    "Carbon offsets do little more than the selling of indulgences by
    Catholic churches in the 16th century. It's time to get serious about stopping climate change and shut these false solutions down".

    Check out NYC Indymedia
    and Rising Tide North America.

    In the US, Carbon Trading Legislation prepares to clear senate in November. I am scared.
    Sorry I could not provide links. I am not very good at that.
    I feel like screaming at all the environmental groups now-do I
    trust them-no way!
    Jen Mazer

    https://woundmosaic.blogspot.com/
     
  3. effigyoffaith

    effigyoffaith Junior Member

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    In a cap and trade system the government limits the total emission at a certain amount. Then they distribute among the various polluters permits to emit a portion of that total. If a company is emitting more than the had permits for than they need to buy permits from others that polluted less. There are endless ways that the permits can be distributed originally. My favorite is that the are auctioned off by the regulating agency and proceeds used to fund research in the alternative energy sector.

    The beauty of a cap and trade system is each year the cap can be lowered and the total emissions reduced. And that the biggest polluters have to pay the most and those that pollute less are at a economic advantage.

    the wiki on emissions trading is pretty good
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading

    I'm less sure about offsets. I think the idea is that you pay someone to reduce their emission instead of doing it yourself. It seems to be the "in thing" for democratic US politicians these days.

    One way I think that offsets might work is if they were for carbon sequestering as in biochar.
     
  4. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Welcome Jen and Effigy,

    'Carbon offsetting' which you can buy is generally for individuals to 'offset' their emissions, usually by paying someone to plant an equivalent amount of trees to counter-balance what they have just emitted.

    In many ways it encourages people to be guilt free about emitting, which is certainly not preferable to not emitting in the first place. Such a system also raises a whole bunch of problems, including:

    How much carbon is actually being offset in the short term when you're planting new trees which take time to mature?

    How to actually measure the amount of carbon offset? (at the moment it's mostly guesswork and wide open to fraud and distortion of reality)

    How much money is being used to administer offsetting businesses?

    How much do they profit?

    And perhaps most importantly...what was the land already used for?

    There's been numerous cases of forests being cut down in order to plant carbon offset businesses seedlings in their place. That's nothing short of outright damaging eco-fraud IMO.

    Carbon trading and cap and trade is essentially the same thing because in most cases (but not all) a cap needs to be set in order to trade - and it runs much as Effigy has set out already. I believe we need to adopt an emission cap system which runs along the lines of Richard Heinberg's Oil Depletion Protocol.

    Either system (cap and trade or carbon offsetting) could feasibly be used to encourage and financially back bio-char as a carbon sequestering method, and I agree with you Effigy that this could potentially be a good thing, but it would certainly require much stronger regulation than carbon offsetting currently has and way less loopholes than the current EU carbon trading model.

    I'm obliged to point out that while this is an important topic, it's only very peripherally related to energy, oil and post-peak oil changes to society, so I would appreciate it if you started another thread if you want to discuss this particular topic in any more detail.

    Thanks in advance for your cooperation and BTW Jen, there's an FAQ link at the top of each page which may help you with how to post links, start threads etc.


    -----------------------------------

    Now seems like as good a time as any to post a little reminder about the Oil Depletion Protocol website, which has grown out of the Richard Heinberg book of the same name. It's the best concept I've seen for sensibly managing transition to an era where we'll be using much less oil each year:

    Oil Depletion Protocol website (Click to view)


    A large chunk of the picture regarding long held suspicions that OPEC nations artificially inflated reserves has now fallen into place, following former Sadad al-Huseini’s admission that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations all 'invented' reserves which didn't exist in order to get bigger production quotas.

    This means that for decades the world has been told we have 300 billion more barrels of oil left in the ground than we actually do - roughly a quarter of the world's supposed remaining 'proved' reserves effectively just vanished:



    The above amounts to a major victory for a number of Peak Oil commentators who have argued that significant artificial reserve inflation occurred among OPEC members - that fact is now confirmed by the ultimate inside source. It's also a massive setback for CERA, Daniel Yergin and the others that have included these invented reserves as part of their attempted discrediting of Peak Oil...particularly seeing they sell their supposedly accurate insider information about reserves at a very high price. :lol:


    Long term Peak Oil commentator Kenneth Defeyes (one of the few who - so far - accurately predicted a 2005 production peak for oil) has an article on his website which expands further on Jeff Vail's recent article about feedback loops combining to decrease oil availability post-peak:

    Feedback Loops* (Click to view)

    * Since this article is currently in the 'current events' section of Ken's website, the link will change, so if you're using the above link much after it was originally posted, use the 'October 2007' link under the 'older articles' section to access it.


    Completely buried by most of the mainstream media, Reuters reported the following yesterday:

    If OPEC do go ahead with 'a basket of currencies', to say the US economy will be in deep trouble would be an understatement. The full article goes on to sketch the history of the US' default on foreign debt back in 1971 and the subsequent removal of the gold standard (leaving the value of the dollar to be backed by oil) and the consequences of countries moving away from trading oil (and whatever else) in US dollars.

    The Last Days of the PetroDollar (Click to view)


    And finally, Daniel Lerch of the Post Carbon Institute has published a book entitled Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - more details available at Energy Bulletin for those who are interested in learning more:

    Building post carbon cities (click to view)
     
  5. Jen Mazer

    Jen Mazer Junior Member

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    To the moderator:
    Could I please have a new thread under "carbon trade systems" and include my comment here and the last two replies? Or how do I do that myself?
    Jen Mazer
     
  6. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Hot on the heels of Sadad al-Huseini’s claim that proven reserves from OPEC nations are considerably overestimated based on creative accounting (see above post), Faith Birol - chief economist at the International Energy Agency - has stated that the IEA's 2008 projections on proven reserves and global production capacity trends will be “addressing the limitations and uncertainties” of the info they've been provided by the United States Geological Survey:


    I think when the 2008 IEA estimates come out, a lot of politicians and anti-peak commentators are going to get a massive shock. :wink:

    Especially considering their 2007 report was already a huge step toward an admission of their past errors - it read like a Peak Oil document.


    Tom Whipple has a short piece on 'After The Peak' which some may find interesting:

    The Peak Oil Crisis: After The Peak? (Click to view)


    And finally, an article on the environmental consequences of using coal for energy - with a focus on what is happening in China:

    World's growing dependence on coal leaving a trail of environmental devastation (Click to view)
     
  7. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Stuart Staniford has a good analysis of Russian production capacity over at The Oil Drum. Russia is the only major producer which hasn't been in decline over recent years (though production actually peaked during the Soviet era) so their production volumes will be critical to how quickly we go into the decline phase globally.

    When Will Russia (and the World) Decline? (Click to view)


    Michael Lardelli - Senior Lecturer in Genetics at The University of Adelaide - has an article at Online Opinion which is interesting not only for the views on Australian energy it puts forward, but also from the comments from readers which follow. They're a good example of how far we still have to go in getting the realities of Peak Oil across to the public - particularly the preoccupation with 'solutions' which are anything but.

    Sleepwalking over the oil peak (Click to view)


    Jim Kunstler has another ( :lol: ) go at the mainstream media and how they report on energy, oil and oil prices - particularly pertinent in a week where current oil prices are very much major news:

    Ignoring the Obvious (Click to view)


    My biggest laugh of the week...it turns out that Daniel Yergin (co-founder and chairman of CERA which is about the last remaining major critic of Peak Oil Theory) contributed to a book on Peak Oil nearly three decades ago...the very same thing he now says is "garbage!" Evidently there wasn't as much money in promoting awareness of Peak Oil as there was selling high priced lies to the rich and influential. :lol:

    Ironically, most of the things Yergin and his fellow contributors predicted back in 1979 regarding Peak Oil and energy in general have come true. Meanwhile, he's been very handsomely rewarded for decades since then communicating the exact opposite to his earlier (correct) writings.

    Young Daniel Yergin as peak oil activist (book review) (Click to view)


    And finally, Rigzone (via Dow Jones Newswires) has an informative article about how much 'big oil' is struggling to bring any significant new supply online to offset declines, despite the massive recent rise in oil prices:

     
  8. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Apparently George Bush understands and acknowledges the concept of Peak Oil - even if he refuses to use the term:

    Reminds me of Brendan Nelson dropping the ball on the real reason for being in Iraq. :wink:


    Recent news tells of a "monster offshore oil discovery" in Brazil...I thought I might put this "monster discovery" in its proper context.

    a) It's going to be hugely expensive to bring to production - "the field lies under 7,060 feet of water, almost 10,000 feet of sand and rocks, and then another 6,600-foot thick layer of salt."

    b) Initial production is estimated (and I emphasise this because so many 'estimates' turn out to be wildly optimistic) to be around 100,000bpd (barrels per day). Brazil alone uses 2.1 millionbpd, Australia uses about 900,000bpd, the US uses about 21 millionbpd.

    A field capable of producing such a small flow of oil, which is so difficult and expensive to get at, counts to the mainstream media as a "monster discovery" in this day and age. The hype this discovery has been accorded is beyond belief if you put it in its proper context. :wink:

    Offshore discovery could make Brazil major oil exporter (Click to view)


    Even most of the major oil company CEO's are starting to come clean (or should I say cleaner :wink:) regarding peak oil...mind you, at this point they don't have a lot of choice:

    These CEO's are still bullish about increasing production, but the facts don't even remotely add up when you examine where this new production will come from. They'll be back year after year with another round of excuses, which only serve to delay the declaration they'll inevitably have to make - Peak Oil is now, or has already passed.


    And finally, along the lines of the last article:


    "Handwriting" on the wall? Or flashing neon letters 50ft high? :wink:
     
  9. caldera

    caldera Junior Member

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    what's that quote ?

    "May those with eyes, see... and may those with ears, hear"

    incredible
     
  10. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Indeed Caldera. :wink:

    Have you checked your PM's lately? I responded to your query and sent you another PM a while later to check if you got it (they sometimes go astray so I thought I'd better check seeing I hadn't heard back from you).

    ---------------------------

    Kathy McMahon (Psy.D.), has an amusing and poignant article on the website 'Peak Oil Blues'...an exploration of 'doomerism' and psychological effects of Peak Oil which is a very good read IMO...I'll quote the beginning here:


    Dave Cohen from ASPO-USA has another good article, this one goes into oil prices and the effects of them feeding back into the wider economy:

    Not Fixing To Walk (click to view)


    Lastly, Big Gav from The Oil Drum (ANZ) has put together quite a thorough and interesting exploration of geothermal energy which is well worth a read (FWIW, as I've stated before, I think geothermal is by far the best 'alternative energy' option for Australia):

    Geothermia (Click to view)
     
  11. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Roger Blanchard from Energy Bulletin has written a critique of the way the mainstream media portrays Peak Oil...or more to the point, typically dodges around Peak Oil to keep the wider public in the dark as long as possible:

    Media's advice for increasing global oil production (Click to view)


    Steven Athearn has compiled a list for Global Public Media of notable figures who have made comments about Peak Oil over recent years...a good PDF to download and save for reference:

    Who's talking about peak oil (Click to go to PDF download page)


    Kurt Cobb has written an interesting article exploring the difficulties of communicating Peak Oil to others - he describes much of society of being in the midst of 'Peak Fun'...a reference to the fact that at peak *anything*, there is by definition, more of it than ever before:

    Peak fun (and the inevitable hangover) - (Click to view)


    And finally, energy investment banker and long time Peak Oil author and activist Matt Simmons has a couple of interesting comments in a recent interview:

    Energy crisis is on horizon: Peaked Production Means Today's Oil Prices Are Cheap (Click to view)
     
  12. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Another oil industry insider - Martin Payne - going public to inform people of the reality behind oil supplies:

    Martin gives his thoughts and the general industry concensus from the recent ASPO US conference at his blog Peak Opportunity:

    ASPO 10/07 - MP's Comments (Click to view)


    Tom Whipple commenting on the recent semi-backflip regarding Peak Oil by the Wall St Journal...where they rather amusingly take the 'we know Peak Oil is a fact but we better rebrand it as something else' stance:

    The Peak Oil Crisis: Wall Street Comes To Reality (Click to view)


    Khebab over at The Oil Drum has a highly technical piece on world decline rates which is certainly not for the mathematically challenged...if your eyes glaze over from reading formula's and lots of graphic data then give this one a miss or just read the conclusions:

    Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts (Click to view)


    Llewellyn King from North Star Writers Group has a general summary of 'the mood' in Houston - a city he describes as 'the heart of the global oil industry' - and surmises that 'fatalism...now grips the oil patch.'

    Energy Angst: Long-Term Oil Gloom Spreads In Houston (Click to view)


    And finally, bad news for future US energy supply and global prices...exports of natural gas from Canada are predicted to decline 30% by 2015 and further after that, while exports from the oil sands projects in Alberta will also decline due to 'rising costs' (what a surprise):

    Bad News from Canada May Raise Short & Long Term Commodity Prices of Oil and Natural Gas (Click to view)

    Certainly further compounds problems for the US with exports predicted to decline significantly from all their other major suppliers within the exact same period.
     
  13. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Megan Quinn Bachman has done a summary for Energy Bulletin of proceedings at the fourth U.S. Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions - well worth a read and gives links to DVD's from the conference:

    Peak oil activists gather, plan for hard times, will lead the way (Click to view)


    A new Dr. M.K. Hubbert (the 'grandfather' of Peak Oil) paper from 1972 has been uncovered:


    Dave Cohen has a very good piece at ASPO-USA on economics and Peak Oil:

    Questioning Peak Oil Economic Assumptions (Click to view)


    Parts two and three of David Clarke's interesting series on 'Australia: The Place To Be' (post-peak) are now available. I highly recommend reading the comments under each article as well as the articles themselves...all interesting and at times informative discussions which offer a good range of opinions. Part one was linked to earlier in this thread (previous page), or you can get to it via the beginning of part three:

    Part 2. The Future in Australia: The Next 13 years (Click to view)

    Australia, The Place To Be: Part 3a (Click to view)


    And finally, for those interested, Gail Tverberg has an article - complete with photos - on her visit to Shell's Brutus off-shore oil/gas platform and New Orleans facility as an invited media guest. It's an interesting insight into the industry and the scale of these kind of offshore projects:

    Visit to Shell's Brutus Off-shore Oil/Gas Platform and New Orleans Facility (Click to view)
     
  14. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Absolutely fascinating article from Dave Kimble which examines and models how much fossil fuel energy it can take to convert to 'alternative energy' sources, when that energy can start reducing fossil fuel inputs, energy payback and other factors - the example he uses is photovoltaic solar panels.

    I can't recommend this article highly enough...it really puts into perspective just how difficult it can be to scale up the transition from one energy source to another is when you're relying on energy from the old source to achieve it:

    The energy dynamics of energy production (Click to view)


    Jeremy Faludi from World Changing has an interesting analysis on the role computers can potentially play in reducing fossil fuel use (and by extension, CO2 equivalent emissions):

    Green Computing Update, Part 4: Computers As Green Tools (Click to view)


    And finally, just as an aside on computing in the future which feeds into the above article and is not really that related to the thread topic, the following article is about a report which suggests that the arrival of YouTube, Skype and other highly intensive bandwidth websites, means that unless US$137 billion is spent in the next two years, all internet users may experience regular interruptions of service ('brownouts') due to demand exceeding network capacity:

    U.S. report warns of brownouts on overloaded Net (Click to view)


    It's a lot of money to come up with in a short period considering the precarious state of the global economy...and obviously, the upgrade (and how many more into the future?) will come at a heavy fossil fuel and emission cost.

    Food for thought.
     
  15. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Leading Peak Oil commentator and author Richard Heinberg discusses the link between food and oil, examining how food production will be affected by declining oil supplies, and explores ways to overcome the inevitable issues:

    What Will We Eat as the Oil Runs Out? (Click to view)


    Tim Winton of The Permaforest Trust Centre for Sustainability Education in Australia explores Pathways to a Low Carbon Future during a community forum presented by Permaforest Trust, the Ethos Foundation and the Obono Institute - slide, video or audio format, no text:

    Click here to go to download page


    Big Gav of Peak Energy (and The Oil Drum ANZ) criticises (quite rightly) a recent article published in The Australian which makes quite a few poorly researched claims about factors relating to Peak Oil:

    Peak Oil In The Australian (Click to view)


    Nate Hagens of The Oil Drum has a good article on how exploiting biofuels on a large scale effects water resources (US specific but useful for anyone else as a guide):

    The Implications of Biofuel Production for United States Water Supplies (Click to view)


    And finally, I'm going to start a separate thread on this, but I thought I'd add it here as well because it is relevant to post-peak society and may be of use to some or many...the Hesperian online library of healthcare books. Definitely material worth saving/printing and having in case of emergency:

    Hesperian’s Online Library (Click to go to download page)
     
  16. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Tom Whipple comments on the recent NYT article which focuses on the issue of rising internal consumption within oil exporting nations leading to declining exports. There are already articles on this topic here on the thread, but it is significant that the mainstream media is finally waking up to this phenomenon...although in this case they do fall back into the 'everything will be fine' outlook at the same time:

    The peak oil crisis: the NY Times drops the first shoe (Click to view)


    The IEA is 'worried' about demand for oil exceeding supply, but states that nobody should 'panic', because oil that is yet to be even discovered - let alone begin to be produced - will magically appear...looks like we're overdue for another wildly optimistic and in hindsight, incredibly incorrect IEA production forecast...they must have been slapped on the wrist for being too close to vaguely honest lately...:wink::

    IEA: oil demand has surpassed supply (Click to view)


    John Michael Greer has a piece on post-peak agriculture which outlines the cost of transition away from fossil fuels in the agricultural sector:

    Agriculture: The Price of Transition (Click to view)


    Finally, two articles and a website on post-peak transport options:

    Phil Hart for TOD ANZ on (among other things) electric bikes and the possible switch to "bi-modal size distribution of vehicles":

    How Big is your Bicycle? (Click to view)

    Richard Gilbert and Anthony Perl for ASPO-USA on preparing transport for oil depletion (please note, these guys are not really clued in about peak oil, despite the article appearing on the ASPO-USA website):

    Preparing Transportation for Oil Depletion (Click to view)

    And lastly, for anyone interested, part of the Solar Evolution website which focuses on Personal Rapid Transport (PRT) options for the future:

    Personal Rapid Transport (Click to view)
     
  17. richardgilbert1

    richardgilbert1 New Member

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    Richard Gilbert and Anthony Perl for ASPO-USA on preparing transport for oil depletion (please note, these guys are not really clued in about peak oil, despite the article appearing on the ASPO-USA website):

    How are we not clued in?
     
  18. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    G'day Richard,

    It was intended to serve as a similar disclaimer to that which ASPO-USA has at the beginning of their articles, but in hindsight, I have worded the above comment clumsily as it comes off sounding disparaging, when my actual intention was to indicate that readers - in my opinion - should treat some of the 'facts and figures' contained within with a healthy degree of scepticism.

    I apologise for the clumsy wording, it was unfair to make such a blanket statement, and I did actually agree with quite a few of the sentiments which were expressed in the article (which is why I posted the link to it). My comment was more a product of time limitations than actual intent.

    The specific part of the article which concerned me was the following:

    The key parts of the above which I dispute, are that the figures you give actually represent an accurate portrayal of "realistic expectations of oil production," and that 2025 represents an "early point in a long era of oil depletion."

    To offer just one example, the recent Energy Watch Group publication projects that oil production will have fallen to around 48 Mb/d (drawing the middle ground between their projections for 2020 and 2030, which are 58 Mb/d and 39 Mb/d respectively) by 2025.

    This projection represents a fall of roughly 40% on current production volumes, while the figure you are aiming at in your 'scenario building' is a 17% global reduction on current consumption. There's a big difference, which is the reason I think it's prudent to not take for granted that a 17% reduction is anywhere near enough to provide for a 'soft landing.'

    It is also worth acknowledging that while the EWG publication represents perhaps the most radical production decline projections from a number that could be used as source material, it doesn't begin to factor in the very important influence of Jeffrey J. Brown's (on occasion also with Samuel Foucher) Export Land Model.

    Jeffrey demonstrates that while production declines in post-peak oil producing nations may run at 4% annual decline (purely a hypothetical decline rate example for the purpose of discussion), actual declines in the amount of oil exported will run at roughly seven times that amount - in this case, a ~28% decline in export volume. If the production decline rate is something like what we're seeing in the UK - just under 8% and probably closer to what we'll see in many places than the 4% example - then we're looking at a decline in exports of well over 50%.

    For a country such as the USA (one of your examples) with massive reliance on the importation of oil, the ELM looms as a massive factor where the reduction of oil needed for transport to allow for a "soft landing," will in my opinion, by necessity, have to be significantly greater than the 40% by 2025 suggested in the article if it is to serve to offset a rise in oil usage among 'developing' countries.

    As for the comment suggesting that 2025 is an "early point in a long era of oil depletion", I would suggest that a ~40% reduction in total global production volumes, with actual export volumes exacerbated by the ELM, represents anything but an early point in the era of oil depletion. It may well be in terms of years before the last barrels of oil are produced, but not in terms of a drop in global production and oil availability for importing nations - or more bluntly, overall impact.

    While I'm fully aware that our contrasting views on this matter undoubtedly stem from the data sources we've each drawn our conclusions from, I feel it would be negligent of me to indicate to those who read this thread that I endorse the theory that a 17% global reduction in oil used for transport will be enough to provide for a "soft landing," when projections indicate that this may well not be the case.

    I hope the above explains my reasoning adequately; in hindsight, a better way of introducing the article would have been to point out that the 17% ambition stated within falls well short of some projections for global production and export decline, and should therefore be viewed with a healthy scepticism - not the comment I did use, which as I said earlier, was unfair to use without any qualification.
     
  19. richardgilbert1

    richardgilbert1 New Member

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    Dear Jez,

    Thanks for your further words. We should stress that the ASPO piece concerned what was in our book, Transport Revolutions: Moving People and Freight without Oil, which was then forthcoming. The book should now have been published (in the UK).

    We are great admirers of the work of Werner Zittel and Jörg Schindler (Energy Watch Group) and cited their reports on coal and uranium in the book. We finished writing the book in July 2007 and their excellent report on oil was not available until October. If we had had access to their report when writing the book we might well have been influenced by it. Instead, we made use of what we regarded as the best projection available to us at the time, that of ASPO. Thus, your basic criticism of our book may be no more than it was written too soon.

    We’re not sure we would attach as much importance to projections that focus on exporters’ own consumption, including the work of Brown and Foucher that you noted (which we did not come across until October 2007) and that of Rubin and Buchanan (which we learned about in July, just after the book manuscript was sent to the publisher). This consumption is usually spurred by extraordinarily low retail prices, which could be caused to rise very quickly.

    You seem to have twisted our statement about 2025 being an early point in a long era of oil depletion. We were scenario building for 2025, for the reasons given. We wanted to stress that this date will be far from being an end point in oil depletion, and that substantial further action to reduce transportation’s oil dependence will be required after 2025, even though our consideration of required future actions ended at 2025.

    We also stress in our book – which is primarily about transportation – that projecting the future is a particularly challenging exercise. The main point of the book is to emphasize the need for a rational approach to transportation planning that takes into account the most trustworthy projections of energy availability. Our book illustrates how this can be done (for the U.S. and China). We believe it is unique in this respect. We emphasize the need to revise plans in the light of new data and analysis. Thus, your criticism of our book for not taking into account an analysis of oil availability produced after we had written the book seems especially unfair.

    Another of your criticisms seems unfair: that readers should treat some of the ‘facts and figures’ within our book with a healthy degree of scepticism. All data and analyses of data should be regarded with scepticism. Your stressing this point in relation to our book suggests that you wish your readers to believe that it is deficient in data presentation. We think we’ve provided by far the most up-to-date and comprehensive survey of worldwide data on transportation and its use of oil products, and we took considerable care in checking these data.

    If there are facts in the book (as opposed to projections) you believe to be incorrect, please point them out. We will post an appropriate correction statement, with credit, at the book’s Web site (https://www.transportrevolutions.info). We are working on an updating statement concerning oil prices, production, and projections of production since July 2007 that we will likely post at the book’s Web site during January 2008.

    Richard
     
  20. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Thanks Richard,

    That does clarify the situation regarding the data. What I have written was not intended to be a criticism of your work per se, more to provide a 'heads-up' to remind readers that there are other projections which suggest that oil depletion could well be significantly greater than your article suggests.

    I agree that it would certainly be unfair of me to criticise the book on the basis of a publication which came out after you had finished your analysis, but I hope you would agree that it is fair for me to point out to readers that the work of the EWG does conflict with the projections you have based the book around at time of publication?

    Also, please bear in mind that I linked to the EWG publication and commented on it back in October when it was released, so while you finished the book well before that and could obviously not be reasonably expected to have included it in your analysis, the article drawn from your book is coming out months after the EWG publication. My concern was partly that someone reading the article may place less credibility on the EWG publication because your work is obviously well researched, and at face value (without the hindsight your above comments have provided) appears to paint the EWG publication as 'unrealistic', by portraying a considerably different figure as the 'realistic' one.

    I do fully understand that wasn't your intention at all, but as consumers of this information who are not privy to the full picture, we only have face value to go on. I also fully sympathise with the difficulty any author has in trying to grapple with the dynamic nature of Peak Oil analysis. As with Climate Change, the updates in projections and raw data come so thick and fast that it's enormously difficult to spend a period of time engaged in writing on the topic, without new information at times altering the basic data which was quite rightly assumed at the beginning.


    Given that GDP growth is typically directly linked to growth in energy consumption, and that most major exporter nations have a positive balance of trade largely due to the price of oil, can we not make an educated estimate that they will continue to grow their economies by maintaining very low retail prices? Internal consumption among major exporting nations is running at around 5% annually and shows no sign of slowing. With a positive balance of trade and the strong probability that oil prices will only continue to rise over the next decade or two, why would these nations destroy their competitive advantage and cause possible civil unrest by raising internal prices radically, when exporting progressively less oil would be largely offset by a rising price, therefore continuing to contribute to a consistently positive trade balance?

    Additionally, Brown and Foucher's ELM data for the UK demonstrates that there is probably little or no link between a post-peak fall in exports and the cost of fuel in the exporting nation (though I am aware you did use the word "usually" above):


    That's all entirely understandable and it was not my intention to misrepresent or 'twist' what you were saying. My primary reason for starting and maintaining this thread is to provide information for those interested which allows them to make rational plans for the future based on the best information available. Permaculture has a strong focus on planning for disaster and I'm sure we'd both agree that Peak Oil does, at the very least, potentially represent a disaster.

    As I mentioned earlier with the 17% figure, challenging your use of 'early' in relation to oil depletion by 2025 is indeed unfair to you with the hindsight of knowing you didn't have the EWG data at time of writing, however, I hope you would agree that in light of the EWG publication, it is both the fair and responsible thing to do if I point out that 2025 may well not represent an 'early stage of oil depletion?'

    I look forward to reading it Richard and I will certainly include it here as soon as I am aware of it. I also look forward to reading the book when it is published here in Australia and I thank you for the time you've spent clarifying your position. Once again, I apologise that my earlier clumsy, rushed comment had the effect it did, though I am pleased that it has had a positive outcome through your additional input.
     

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