Peak Oil & Post Peak Oil Changes To Society Articles

Discussion in 'The big picture' started by Jez, Jun 28, 2006.

  1. hedwig

    hedwig Junior Member

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    Jez, the second link is really good, the third scary.
    I read some years ago in the "Spiegel" magazine that a financial crash in the US is likely, due to the hight of the personal debth of the households (not only mortgage).
    Maybe there are two different things coming together.

    My personal believe is that the US could have a economically growth with declining energy use (however the overall growth is limited and yet reached), simply because so much is wasted.

    All what you can read at the moment is, that the economic collapse of the US is at the doorstep, will it take weeks, month? I bet not years.
     
  2. Ojo

    Ojo Junior Member

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  3. hedwig

    hedwig Junior Member

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    Cuba is not a realistic scenario for peak oil. Because
    1. many cubans left home (they're expatriated after two years abroad), so there were considerable less to feed
    2. most of the cubans abroad send money home (dollars), like most latin americans abroad do.

    And: the special period wasn't funny at all, that's the reason why so many left.
     
  4. Ojo

    Ojo Junior Member

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    The sceneario will probably be different in every country depending on their consumption. The solutions could be much the same, curtail consumption and community cooperation. Cubans probably don't miss their Ronco pocket fisherman and dispoable lighters because they never had them.

    https://www.communitysolution.org/solutions.html

    money talks AND installs governments. big oil hires deniers, monsanto edits wikipedia (got that in a permaculture email this AM)
    https://www.politicalfriendster.com/rate ... 19&id2=238
    there just isn't Time for that kind of thing, "tide and Time wait for no man."
     
  5. Ojo

    Ojo Junior Member

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    John Howard's team revise history on Wikipedia
    Staff from the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet have made at least 126 changes to various pages in the online encyclopaedia, according to a Fairfax report.
    https://www.zdnet.com.au/news/software/s ... 468,00.htm


    U.S. Invades Cyberspace: The U.S. State Department is upgrading "foreign policy to Web 2.0 interactivity for the new electronic information age," with its first-ever blog, "Dipnote." The department "has already vastly expanded its Web presence and ... has set up a State Department YouTube channel." Meanwhile, the department's Digital Outreach Team is monitoring Middle Eastern blogs and Internet forums, sometimes adding comments.
    https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Disinfopedia

    https://wikiscanner.virgil.gr/

    "As scarce as truth is, the supply has always been in excess of the demand." - Josh Billings


    The power of the Internet is like a two-edged sword. It can deliver misinformation and uncorroborated opinion with equal ease. The thoughtful and the thoughtless co-exist side by side in cyberspace.
    excerpts
    https://www.cja-jca.org/cgi/content/full/47/7/713
     
  6. Ojo

    Ojo Junior Member

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    One of the most frightening realities of teaching college history is that most students rarely have a clue what fascism is. They know about Hitler and the extermination of Jews, but they see little connection with Nazi rule in the 1930s and 40s and the current political milieu in the United States. Overwhelmingly, they cannot define fascism, nor can they define socialism or democracy. After all, they were pre-occupied during grammar school with becoming standardized human beings by way of taking standardized "No Child's Behind Left" tests, five hours a day, four days a week. So why would they know the definitions of fascism, socialism or democracy?

    As for Wolf's suggestion in today's article that we "take to the streets", the police state is preparing for that eventuality as well by letting us know that it has developed severely injuring electromagnetic crowd control technology that will dramatically limit how many and how often people can "take to the streets." Welcome to full-spectrum "1984".

    I repeat: the police state is right here, right now!

    Moreover, some pivotal factors that Wolf has not addressed are global energy depletion, climate change, and global economic meltdown which are exacerbating the fascist shift about which she so brilliantly writes and which will continue to embolden that shift as energy scarcity, climate chaos, and financial crises add fuel to the fires of terrorism that the ruling elite have so consciously and carefully incited and fanned throughout America. As American society continues to unravel, the fascist shift will escalate, and what is left of our civil liberties will further evaporate.
    excerpts
    https://www.informationclearinghouse.inf ... e18426.htm
     
  7. Jana

    Jana Junior Member

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    Fascism can only gain hold in a society that refuses to plainly see it, and see beyond it. To get rid of a demon, so we learn in fairytails, we have to simply call the demon by its true name. That the emperor has been strutting around naked for nearly 8 years and the subjects have failed to kick him out of office is a sign of the work toward a mature facing of reality that needs to be done nation wide. We need to look at the situation from a bird'seye (Horus) point of view in order to know how to navigate this difficult passage.

    As well as the web videos on Fascism it helps to look at those on Mind wars, MInd control and Cults...eg: How to be a Cult Leader. Also Jordan Maxwell for becoming symbol literate. Bill Deagle and Fred Bell.

    https://www.livevideo.com/video/CTCC/265 ... happe.aspx

    Things are moving so fast now, the conditions that the fascist tumor is preparing for, will be obsolete by the time they try to implace it...as long as we are proactive, positive and working toward an awaken empowered society where facism cannot gain hold.

    Spiritual prescience realized is the penetration of the tension of our internal defenses that have been building for centuries within our bodies so we can harvest their energies for our own catalytic expansion. The self in a closed collapsing universe lives in defense and defense is hostility. The self in an open expanding universe has all senses open to the Whole, hence is infinitely radiant with fecund life and awareness.

    Each individual needs to mature, and to hold all Government-service people accountable to "maturity" also. New Age "Light chasing" will only contribute to global downfall. "The Secret" while holding part of the method of success, should not prevent us from doing the shadow work that will bring about Maturity.

    The keys to the most elevated approach to evil/negative shadow:
    1. Resistance is the hymen between the immature and the mature state.
    2. When the baby of maturity emerges, it is as though it is fully formed, because it simply "is what is"...and was just hiding in the dark womb along with the Shadow-fear.
    2. Negative ego/Shadow needs to be seen, understood and loved into submission. And a new more “Universal” vision implanted.
    3. Fascism is prevented by magnifying the differentiation, genius and Presence of each individual.
    4. Social-evil needs to be seen through an amoral lens as though it were a physical cancer—in this way the moral-emotional hardware is disengaged allowing a rational and non-reactive approach to the cultural shadow.
     
  8. Ojo

    Ojo Junior Member

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    Do they still have the "no stopping" law on the hill in Boulder? I remember 30 years ago I was walking on the hill and I stopped to talk to a friend, a couple cops on foot patrol walked past and one of them mumbled something, I was in a conversation and didn't hear him and wasn't sure it was directed at me and I kept talking. The cops came at me, pulled out their nightsticks and yelled, "I SAID KEEP MOVING", we got moving. It has been coming for awhile. Do they have the chainlink and bulletproof glass corridors on the hill yet?
    ________________________________________________________

    A vast “rabble-proof” barrier has isolated the city, where underground stations are being closed and 5,000 police and soldiers will patrol the streets in the $300 million (£122 million) security operation.

    Prison authorities will release inmates this weekend to accommodate arrested protesters, who will be taken away in a fleet of public buses converted into mobile holding cells. Blackhawk military helicopters and F18 fighters will patrol the skies above Sydney as the city prepares for what John Howard, the Prime Minister, says is the most important international meeting yet held in Australia.
    excerpt
    https://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 381674.ece

    Because Americans have been raised in a controlled illusory environment (which has been fabricated by decades of corporate/government brainwashing), like rats in cages, and because of the very effective "filtering" system on all public communications systems, it is practically impossible for the "Paul Reveres" of the Internet to awaken the town.

    We look at the challenge before us and are overwhelmed at the utter impossibility of it all – how can we stop the things that are about to be, and save those things that are about to be no more? Is it America's destiny to become the new "Reich?" Doesn't our greatly revered Constitution acknowledge our God-given rights to oppose dictatorship if it raises its head in our government, and even to abolish and change government that becomes abusive of these rights and the rights of innocent others? Yes, we have all these rights and more. (Most of the powers that belong "to the People" are yet to be defined [10th Amendment, "The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved for the States respectively, or to the people."], but that too has to change.) What we do not have is freedom of expression in this country for anyone who opposes the criminal actions by our government, or by those corporate elites who sit in the real seats of power, over them.

    The great problem for us is that we have to deal with those who only deal in disinformation.

    It is time to tell the people about the danger. We have to make the Congress investigate Cheney and the neocons, in order to stop their new war plans and to find out exactly how far they have gone in subverting the Constitution of the United States. We have to do it now.

    We have to overcome the ideological forces that suppress the real news in this country and devise ways to get word to the people, past the filter that sanitizes our communication. One commercial on "Northwoods," then and now, with emphasis on the Israeli connection to the coming Iran war, might be a large enough dose of truth, to crack open the conspiracy known as "neoconservatism." Meanwhile, we have to counter the organized campaign of lies that now masquerade as truth.
    excerpts
    https://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/cgi-bin/ ... e_twenty_f
     
  9. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    I think in light of the above posts, it's probably a good time to state the purpose of this thread.

    While the thread title is "Peak Oil & Post Peak Oil Changes To Society Articles", it was never the intention for the "changes to society" part to include anything other than the direct and possible societal results of energy shortages.

    People visit the thread to get news on Peak Oil and articles which directly discuss post Peak Oil consequences. I don't think it's a good idea to divert an already large thread into discussions which don't directly relate to either of the former.

    So please, Ojo and Jana, if you want to have a discussion about fascism in the US or anything else not specifically related to Peak Oil, could you start another thread to do so?

    I'm not trying to hassle you or prevent you from disseminating information you think people should read - far from it, I fully encourage you to start another thread on the issues you've raised - I'm just trying to protect the integrity of the thread and make it as easy as possible for people to get information on Peak Oil.

    Thanks for your (I hope) cooperation on this. :)

    ----------------------------

    The following is an article by Glenn Morton..."a geophysicist in the oil industry. For Kerr-McGee Oil and Gas Corp., Glenn served as Geophysical Mgr Gulf of Mexico, Geophysical Mgr for the North Sea, Dir. of Technology and as Exploration Director of China. Currently he is an independent consulting geophysicist..."

    It's an interesting article which touches on a wide range of topics:

    ...To Grandmother's House We Go: Peak Oil Is Here (Click to view)


    And a couple of very brief notes from the recent ASPO 6 conference...

    Ray Leonard of the Kuwait Energy Company spoke about the Hedberg Conference, a formerly secret recent meeting of major oil industry figures. One outcome of the meeting was that using data provided by the companies present, it was widely agreed that realistically, the world has around 250 billion attainable barrels of oil left to discover, not the 700 billion barrels stated by the US Geological Survey - the latter being the figure that policy makers use to make decisions.

    Dr. James Schlesinger (former US Energy Secretary and head of the CIA) made the comment "...we are all peakists now. Conceptually the battle is over, the peakists have won” during his presentation at the conference.
     
  10. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    The last article of Gail Tverberg's series on the economic impacts of Peak Oil - this one focusing on future trends. Much of it is US specific, but it's still a useful read IMO:

    Economic Impact of Peak Oil Part 3: What's Ahead? (Click To View)

    For anyone that missed parts one and two, I'll re-post both links below:

    Economic Impact of Peak Oil Part 1: A Flashback (Click To View)

    Economic Impact of Peak Oil Part 2: Our Current Situation (Click To View)


    Tom Standing from ASPO-USA has written an article which focuses on debunking the recent National Petroleum Council (NPC) report and their assertion that enhanced oil recovery (EOR) will contribute significant additional production in years to come:

    Once Again, NPC Expects Too Much From EOR (Click To View)
     
  11. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    A couple of articles from Kurt Vail, the first on...

    Geopolitical Feedback Loops in Peak Oil (Click To View)

    The second is the first in a four-part series on Willits, one of the first communities in the world to become Peak Oil aware and start acting on it:

    Willits and the problem of slow knowledge (Click To View)

    ------------------------

    I'd also like to extend my warm congratulations to our very own Sonya Wallace, whose hard work and vision with SEAC has seen the Sunshine Coast be named Australia's first 'Transition Town.'

    Read more about it Here (Click to view)

    Well done Sonya. :thumbright:
     
  12. Jana

    Jana Junior Member

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    Heaps of great watching...
    Peak Moments "Peak Moment" is a weekly half-hour TV series featuring conversations about local food, renewable energy, transportation alternatives, preparedness, economics and other areas of concern as we move into a period of climate change and declining fossil fuels.
    Website: https://www.peakmoment.tv
    https://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?u ... moment&p=r —80 TV programs
     
  13. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Big news folks, QLD Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation Andrew McNamara has released the QLD government report into "Queensland’s Vulnerability to Rising Oil Prices."

    Media release is Here (Click to view)

    The report PDF can be downloaded from Here (Click to go to download page)

    Unsurprisingly, the report is conservative and optimistic in nature, but it is groundbreaking from a governmental perspective in that it clearly acknowledges the undeniable reality of Peak Oil, states that it will be factored into a whole of state government response, outlines that a big change in the way communities go about their lives and business is essential, and makes some suggestions for the mitigation of Peak Oil (some of which are wildly off the mark IMO, others are very positive if they are properly backed by government funding).

    It's a major step - and don't forget that which direction Queensland heads in from here is something that lies with the will of individuals as much as it does the government.
     
  14. caldera

    caldera Junior Member

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    Change is the only constant ~

    I heard recently that Queensland DPI (Department of Primary Industries) are sending all their boys and girls to the Nutri-tech Courses

    and to think 50 years ago not one government in the world had a department for the environment

    now we are waking up and remembering that we are nature, we are the environment... our bodies are made of the same elements that we find in all of nature

    have no fear

    change is here
     
  15. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    No doubt about that Caldera, just a question of how effectively we can manage change...I'd agree there's a lot more open mindedness to new ideas these days.

    -------------------------------------

    Stuart McCarthy (Brisbane coordinator of ASPO - Australia) has a valuable critique and commentary regarding the recently released "Queensland’s Vulnerability to Rising Oil Prices" report:

    Peak Moment for Peak Oil in Queensland (Click to view)


    Richard Heinberg has revisited his book "Powerdown: Options and actions for a Post Carbon World" and offers his updated thoughts on the subject, along with a 'here and now' critique of our preparedness (i.e. lack of it) with regard to Peak Oil:

    Powerdown Revisited/As the World Burns (Click to view)


    John Michael Greer discusses Powerdown and an 'ecotechnic' society:

    Climbing Down The Ladder (Click to view)


    Khebab over at The Oil Drum applies Hubbert Linearisation to Ghawar in his ongoing exploration of Saudi depletion:

    The Hubbert Linearization Applied on Ghawar (Click to view)


    And an article posted on the Platts blog which summarises and discusses a recent CERA report into oil industry personnel shortages, which can perhaps best be further summarised with the quote:


    As mentioned before in this thread, a future shortage of skilled labour in the oil industry is going to be another big factor in production volumes and consequently, availability and declines of supply. Even the professional denialists at CERA admit it. :wink:
     
  16. newcroft

    newcroft Junior Member

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  17. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Strange bloke that Alan Kohler Newcroft...he's effectively said the opposite a few times too. :?

    -------------------------------------

    Larry G. Chorn, the chief economist for Platts has done an analysis on how much it's going to cost the oil industry to maintain infrastructure, upscale exploration etc in the future to try and keep up with demands. Take it with a bit of a grain of salt because it's likely to be an underestimate, but the numbers involved are staggering.

    Declining production volumes are just one of many enormous challenges the industry faces...individually they present big problems, collectively they paint a picture of a massive looming crisis which is quite literally unsolveable.

    Trillions in spending needed to meet global oil and gas demand, analysis shows (Click to view)


    John Michael Greer has yet another excellent post on his blog - this time around the topic is The Age of Scarcity Industrialism:

    The Age of Scarcity Industrialism (Click to view)
     
  18. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    German based Energy Watch Group has just released a report which claims, among other things, that:

    The 101 page PDF report and 13 page PDF executive summary can both be downloaded from Here (Click to view).


    Jim Kunstler's summary of proceedings from the recent ASPO annual conference in Houston (along with a typically Kunstleresque diatribe about Houston and its surroundings! :lol: ) is available at his blog:


    Finally, just to round out the good news, the Australian publication Stock Journal reports that CBH chief executive, Imre Mencshelyi, has predicted that food prices will at least treble within the next five years (an analysis which, it must be said, beyond biofuels, entirely excludes the cumulative effects of Peak Oil).

    Food prices to treble in five years: CBH (Click to view)
     
  19. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Big Gav has been instrumental in setting up an Australia/New Zealand chapter of the highly informative and successful 'The Oil Drum' website:


    The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand (Click to view)

    The site will feature oil and energy related news which is specific to these regions and is a great resource for those who want to keep up on regional developments.

    -------------

    The PeakOilWhen website from Case Western Reserve University is an interesting initiative:

    PeakOilWhen website (click to view)


    They have just reported on their May-August survey (Click to download PDF).

    Summary:


    The survey puts them with a group including Chris Skrebowski (high profile Peak Oil expert and editor of UK Petroleum Review) who maintain that total liquids probably haven't quite peaked yet, but will over the next few years.

    Chris has recently been interviewed on this matter and on the above Energy Watch Group report - both interviews are audio only (at this stage) - his take is that we're on a ~1200 day countdown to Peak Oil:

    Global Public Media interview (Click to go to audio download page)

    David Strahan interview (Click to go to audio download page)


    It's important to keep in mind that there is significant disagreement on the above points - many believe we've already peaked, others believe new production coming on line between now and 2011 or so will result in a very slight increase on past total production.

    The two things both camps agree on is that the correct answer will only be revealed in hindsight, and that one way or another, we may as well be on the downward curve after peak right now, because even if we do have another minor production spike over the next few years, it won't make much difference to the big picture on declines or the short and long term economic impact.

    -----------------

    Tom Whipple - long time Peak Oil commentator from Falls Church News Press - has a summary of the recent ASPO conference which is US specific, but well worth a quick read IMO:

    -----------------

    Finally, as a little sideline for US people, it's interesting to note the recent statement from Jim Rogers:

     
  20. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Double post due to lagging submission and slow update on the forum thread list not revealing the post had already gone through at the beginning of the lag... :rr:
     

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