peak oil has already happened

Discussion in 'The big picture' started by paradisi, Oct 23, 2007.

  1. paradisi

    paradisi Junior Member

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    https://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html
    and
    https://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmi ... 0-2007.pdf

    Guardians headlines:
    Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year
    · Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted


    Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study


    · Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year
    · Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted



    World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

    Makes you sort of glad you do what you do.

    It amazes me some people think that the cure for the loss of oil will be bio fuels. True, you can grow your own fuel and run a car or a truck or even a plane off it - but where does the bio fuel come from? From the same land that grows most of society's food. If you aren't growing your own food in some way, then you will have a choice, fill 'er up or eat. You can't have both.
     
  2. Uncle Yarra

    Uncle Yarra Junior Member

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    You're not the only one thinking about this, see yesterday's OilDrum...
    https://www.theoildrum.com/node/3124#more

    I get so frustrated trying to tell people about PO I use the buddhist(?) prayer flag idea. They write a prayer on a flag and stick it in the ground. Each time it flutters their prayer is offered up. My variation is that I use it as an auto signature on work e-mails (see below).

    Ghawar is dying - ARAMCO not a swing producer anymore - Peak Oil is right now!
    LOOK-> https://www.theoildrum.com/node/3001#more
     
  3. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    FWIW, for anyone who wants to view the entire report, there's a link on the 'Peak Oil & Post Peak Oil Changes To Society Articles' thread.

    It is true that oil production levels peaked in 2005, and total liquids peaked in 2006, but there is considerable debate coming from some credible people in the Peak Oil camp about whether or not new production coming on line in the next couple of years will slightly exceed past production peaks.

    However, it's also worth noting that even these people arguing for a slightly later peak, envisage a relatively similar decline pattern after that point, while any small amount of additional supply will very quickly be swallowed by steadily and relentlessly rising demand.

    Personally, I think we're past peak. There is significant production coming on line in the next few years, but the combination of rig and equipment shortages, cost blowouts, decrepit equipment which should have been replaced a decade ago, technical expertise shortages, geopolitical issues and a number of other factors, all point to the likelihood that new supply coming on line in coming years will struggle to replace declines elsewhere.

    I also think that perhaps the most significant occurrence over the past few months has been the fact that the market has finally woken up to the fundamentals underlying global oil supply and demand. Finally, those fundamentals are being somewhat reflected in the price, a fact which should hopefully spur more urgent policy debate at a range of levels.
     
  4. caldera

    caldera Junior Member

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    “Today, the extrasomatic energy used by people around the world is equal to the work of some 280 billion men. It is as if every man, woman, and child in the world had 50 slaves. In a technological society such as the United States, every person has more than 200 such "ghost slaves."

    .. from that oildrum link

    very interesting

    the world is fueled by non-renewable ghost slaves ...

    and soon the slaves will be no more ~
     
  5. Ojo

    Ojo Junior Member

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  6. hedwig

    hedwig Junior Member

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  7. grease

    grease Junior Member

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    Yep, it is happening as we speak. The saying 'Nero fiddled as rome burnt' springs to mind
    .https://www.phrases.org.uk/bulletin_boar ... /2950.html
    The interesting thing is how we as a whole (us the people of the world) handle the situation. The 1% of the population who control 90% of the worlds resourses will want to maintain the staus quo. The rest of the worlds population would probably like to do something about their plight but are distracted/obstucted by famine/war/religous crusade/abject povertyand the list goes on. For those of us lucky enough not to be born in the slums of some far off second or third world country, who can watch (while fully fed) global events unfold from the comfort of our homes.....
    While the rich nations develop obesity (doctors have a new label for it when dealing with fat people 'Bariatric patients' ),diabetes and the list lifestyle diseases goes on;the poor of the world probably haven't heard of peak oil. Even if they had they probably wouldn't care that much as oil isn't a direct part of their world. That this subject is being debated/discussed is a good thing. That anything will eventuate is hopeful but unlikely given the current demographics
    I probably should end this rant here. I don't know the answer other than to state that the world worked pretty bloody well before we had a big impact on it and it will probably work pretty bloody well after we've been purged from it.
    All I can suggest is everyone prays to their god and do their best. I don't believe that the planet will end. Whoever designed and made it won't let that happen.
     
  8. Ojo

    Ojo Junior Member

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    "Eco-funerals" seem to be the answer, complete with biodegradable coffins and sensitive woodland burials.
    https://www.worldchanging.com/archives/007498.html



    What can I do to prepare for the post-oil era?
    The most popular course of consensus action is to simply do nothing and wait to see what happens. This is what 99% of Americans will choose to do. They will continue to buy their gas-guzzling vehicles, live energy-hungry lifestyles and pretend that America will simply take over the oil supplies it needs in the future by military force. (Which may actually be the plan at the Pentagon, by the way...) The smarter folks out there have already figured out that the war on Iraq is all about controlling oil supplies. So is the cozy relationship with the Saudis. If there's a revolution in Saudi Arabia, and someone takes over the country and decides to stop selling oil to America, the U.S. would stage a military invasion within days. The real mission would be to protect the oil and ensure future shipments to the U.S., but the public explanation for the invasion would be whatever fiction the national leadership thinks the public would swallow (most likely something related to "terrorists"). If you're genuinely interested in surviving the post-oil era with anything resembling quality of life, it requires modifying your lifestyle so that you do not depend on long, highly-complex supply lines for your food, water, energy and basic needs. That means moving out of extreme climates (where you have to heat your house all winter, for example), pursuing your own home garden food production (meaning you'll need good soil and water sources), and learning to live in a more self-reliant manner (or being part of a small community that can operate in a self-sustaining way). Most Americans, flatly stated, have no interest in giving up the luxuries provided by an oil-powered economy and pursuing some sort of simple, sustainable lifestyle. Americans tend to believe that's the way people live in third-world nations, but not here in wealthy America. That imagined wealth, of course, will largely evaporate when oil becomes scarce. Even the cheap goods at Wal-Mart are shipped here from China using oil.
    https://www.peakoilreport.com/
    https://www.unicamp.br/fea/ortega/eco/tr ... DieOff.pdf

    Peak Oil and Climate Change must be fused as issues – an approach is needed to deal with them as a package.

    The decline of global oil supply and the increasing cost of everything as a consequence means we will see our ability to deal with the consequences of Climate Change reduced.
    https://www.energybulletin.net/11549.html
    https://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/5/29/0483/57738
     
  9. Ojo

    Ojo Junior Member

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    Nationwide, utilities have proposed more than 185 new coal-fired power plants since 2000 as natural gas prices skyrocketed and energy independence became a pressing concern. Ten of those new plants are now operating, 32 are under construction or close to beginning, and about 90 others are in earlier phases of development.

    "Once they get built, we're obviously not going to tear them down," Mazria says. "And when you see what one of them can do …"

    Take, for example, Home Depot's pledge to plant 3 million trees over the next decade. Combined, all those trees would consume as much carbon dioxide over their lifetime as one new midsize, 500-megawatt coal plant would emit in just 10 days, says Ed Mazria, a lecturer on building-sector greenhouse gas emissions.

    The dirtiest of all fossil fuels

    What McLendon discovered was that coal, which already generates half the country's electricity, is the dirtiest of all fossil fuels. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from coal totaled 2.1 billion tons in 2006, about 35% of total emissions, and as much as every plane, train and automobile combined, according to the Energy Department.

    That's why Nilles says it's paramount the USA invest in renewable resources such as wind and solar power rather than more coal plants. "If we don't beat these coal plants, there'll be no market for renewables," Nilles says. "We'll be locked into these emission rates for 50 to 60 years."

    Coal-fired power plants account for almost 40% of human-caused mercury emissions — the nation's largest source — and are among the largest sources of particulate matter, according to the EPA. Opponents say the 220 pounds of mercury and 1,805 tons of particulate matter the plant could emit each year outweigh any economic benefits it might bring.
    https://www.usatoday.com/news/health/200 ... ants_N.htm
    https://www.nrdc.org/air/energy/taskforce/tfinx.asp
     
  10. Ojo

    Ojo Junior Member

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  11. Sololeum

    Sololeum Junior Member

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    I spend a lot of time on Peak Oil sites trying to get people to understand that food is the big issue, and that they should learn how to grow, harvest, store and cook food - as well as make arrangements for the land on which to do this.

    The heart of the problem is that lots of people have lost their contact with the natural world, and they can't see themselves working in the soil.

    The big question is "How can we change this?"
     
  12. paradisi

    paradisi Junior Member

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    sololeum - it's finally been connected in Australia

    the ABC in Australia had a news report or it may have even been on the kids show behind the news - about how the ethanol manufacturers (exxon, B, shell - same old lot) are buying up corn and wheat for years to come. They've already bought the next decade of our bread.
     
  13. Luisa

    Luisa Junior Member

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  14. caldera

    caldera Junior Member

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    Be the change you want to see in the world

    I do ask myself the question how the mainstream are ever going to wake up

    I feel it's just really important that we focus on creating micro-shifts in our own back yard

    "act locally think universally"

    imho.. the sooner the current economic system crashes, the better it will be for all life on earth

    but i'm open to whatever unfolds
     
  15. Michaelangelica

    Michaelangelica Junior Member

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    Re: peak oil has already happened

    what do you think of this article
    https://www.brasschecktv.com/page/432.html

    https://www.care2.com/news/member/471046224/898900.
     
  16. bazman

    bazman Junior Member

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    Re: peak oil has already happened

    Facts: Scientific and historical about gasoline and alcohol
    Scientific and historical, hmmmm maybe not.

    4. Alcohol can be manufactured locally and on a community level from renewable plant material for $1 per gallon.
    In Rural areas where large amount of biomass are available, where do city based people of source this from?

    5. The growing of plant material for alcohol would have no effect on the price of food.
    Rubbish. Fuel based corn or other alcohol based fuel crops are displacing food crops the world over. This is a major problem which the UN is trying to get a handle on

    6. The growing of plants for fuel would more than neutralize the carbon created by burning alcohol for fuel.
    Depends, Fertiliser, pesticide, transport and farm vehicle fuels, removing forests to plant crops, loss of soil carton due to bad farming practices.

    7. In Brazil, over 50% of new cars sold can already run on 100% alcohol.
    At the cost of the Amazon forests?

    8. Producing alcohol from plant material is incredibly energy efficient.
    Depends, Fertiliser, pesticide, transport and farm vehicle fuels, removing forests to plant crops, loss of soil carton due to bad farming practices.

    10. Gasoline is a high toxic material.
    And fuel grade alcohol isn't?

    11. It is entirely unneeded to fuel our cars.
    Maybe we should be reducing private car use instead.

    12. Oil companies like Chevron have pressured PBS, commercial TV networks and other news media to keep this basic information from the public for decades - and the censorship continues to this day
    True just like every other BS product advertised on TV and in other media.
     
  17. Michaelangelica

    Michaelangelica Junior Member

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    Re: peak oil has already happened

    You might like to look at this too
    https://hypography.com/forums/terra-pret ... t-bio.html

    Hopefully the Indonesian Palm Oil environmental disaster won't happen again.
    Forests are still being torn down at a furious rate for things like beef cattle.
    I don't see anything wrong with ethanol produced from sugar cane, algae farms, or salt bush (from marginal farming land).
    All these tend to decentralise fuel production. They take the power and influence away from BIG OIL and re-distribute it among (hopefully ) smaller growers.
    Even making USA Corn dearer may not be a totally bad thing . Corn syrup is ubiquitous in food and may be a major reason for the world obesity epidemic.
    Dearer USA corn may mean underdeveloped countries can compete with the US.?

    A crate of "off" peaches from the greengrocer makes a fair bit of alcohol :)

    Petrochemicals especially with additives have to be more polluting/toxic than alcohol

    These (below) are the sort of people that make our petrol now. Chevon-Mobile have just been gifted a fair bit of WA's resources, in a very environmentally sensitive area, and even given $6o million in Tea money from Howard last year.
    https://breakingthematrix.blogspot.com/2 ... tions.html
     
  18. bazman

    bazman Junior Member

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    Re: peak oil has already happened

    Money money money at any cost.... and the tragic thing is it's only going to get worst as oil becomes harder to pump.

    I have seen some you tube videos on on the large scale algae farms that looks promising as a possible source as these can be hooked into coal burning power plants using the excess co2.

    https://au.youtube.com/watch?v=_ToojK_MJd0

    Baz
     
  19. Jana

    Jana Junior Member

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    Re: peak oil has already happened

    Not sure if you guys are familiar with Thomas Golds theories:
    * THE DEEP HOT BIOSPHERE: Myth of Fossil Fuels, by Thomas Gold. Suppose someone claimed that we are NOT running out of petroleum? Or that life on Earth began below the surface of our planet? Or that oil and gas are not "fossile fuels"? Or that if we find extraterrestrial life it is likely to be within, not on, other planets? You might expect to hear statements like these from an author of science fiction. But what if they came from a renowned physicist, an indisputably brilliant scientist who has been called "one of the world's most original minds"? In this book, author Gold sets forth truly controversial and astonishing theories about where oil and gas come from, and how they acquire their organic "signatures". The conclusions he reaches in this book are quite agreeable to the prior work of Wilhelm Reich on the bions, though Reich is not mentioned -- he sees petroleum as the product of deep-earth bio-activity, much like what is seen coming from the earth at deep-sea hydrothermal vents and in hot-springs, which yield up "archaea" (bions) from great depth. This certainly makes understandable the resistance his ideas have been met with, as acceptance of Gold will bring Reich more to the fore-front of open discussion on the "origin-of-life" question. Gold is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, with many other titles and honors, and not some "outsider", so he cannot be so easily ignored. Definitely worth the read, and will wipe away the pessimism regarding the current Islamic-stranglehold over the West, due to our addiction to imported petroleum. If Gold is correct, nearly at every location on earth should yield up petroleum if wells are drilled deep enough. 243 pp.
    https://www.orgonelab.org/cart/xclimate.htm
     

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