Master Design Question / I'm Stuck!!!!

Discussion in 'Members' Systems' started by Pakanohida, Jan 19, 2012.

  1. Pakanohida

    Pakanohida Junior Member

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    So, yeah, I am literally stuck. The river has gone over the embankments and is FINALLY flooding the pasture lands below and making it into a lake. We have wind gusts reported in the area at 113mph (182 Kph).

    So, with global enviromental issues such as sea levels rising, etc my question is with a "Master Design" for a property, how far ahead of time is too far to plan?

    Geoff Lawton speaks of the time factor in videos about establishing food forests, my concerns may seem over the top, with all that is going on in the world I can't help but wonder about my master design and future environmental concerns.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. macey

    macey Junior Member

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    Wow, that is a curly one!
    With no consistency in published predictions of climate change and it's effects on various regions it becomes almost impossible I'd imagine to build a timeframe to work to.
    I guess you take the most pessimistic prediction, make it a little more unforgiving and use that in deciding on how to proceed with a master plan?

    I'm sure though there are a number of far better informed folk on here that will be able to give you some better advice than that!
     
  3. Ludi

    Ludi Junior Member

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    The most pessimistic predictions have anything below the Arctic Circle becoming uninhabitable in the next couple of decades!

    James Lovelock "predicts that by 2020 extreme weather will be the norm, causing global devastation; that by 2040 much of Europe will be Saharan; and parts of London will be underwater."

    https://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2008/mar/01/scienceofclimatechange.climatechange
     
  4. Pakanohida

    Pakanohida Junior Member

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    Well, didn't the Maldives a few years ago made an artificial floating island in order to help the parts of the island nation already underwater? I seem to remember that from the last 7 years or so.

    As for me, yesterday, during the day, the winter pastures were about 50% filled with water. Currently, well, look at the photos below.

    Yesterday's view - https://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/31/winterlake120.jpg/

    This morning's - https://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/140/winterlake121.jpg/



    I think I need plans for a low draft river boat.
     
  5. eco4560

    eco4560 New Member

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    Hmmm - that's a SUPER swale.... Storing that much water in the soil profile probably isn't going to work! I guess the message is to not plant that area with things that you aren't prepared to sacrifice when it floods. But if it is slow moving water, you might get lots of fertile silt settling out to make really nice soil once it has gone. Or alternately everyone upstream may be contributing to a chemical soup that ends up at your place....
     
  6. Pakanohida

    Pakanohida Junior Member

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    When swales go wrong? Next on PRI-TV ;) :)
     
  7. pebble

    pebble Junior Member

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    Location:
    inland Otago, NZ
    Climate:
    Inland maritime/hot/dry/frosty
    I'm not really following the issues with your land Pak, but in general I think plan for the worst case scenario that is survivable and possible to stay on your land. eg if I lived in the UK, and the worst case scenario is an ice age brought on by changes to the gulf stream, then there is no point in planning for that because I would be one of the ones that would die if it gets that bad.

    I'm fortunate to live somewhere where our biggest problems are manmade and thus changeable, and it makes sense to extrapolate out from that. But I also live in quake land so I could come up with the perfect future-proofed scenario and design around that and then we get the big one and it's all gone. You can't design around unmitigated disaster, and trying to do so is very stressful, so there's not much point in thinking about it. Look at the possible futures and pick the ones you CAN design for.
     
  8. Pakanohida

    Pakanohida Junior Member

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    Thank you for asking, maybe I can explain my fear better.

    Currently, the rains stopped for the night and that view out there is still flooding. The flood is isolating parts of my area into very large islands for currently 2, 6 hour periods, 2x a day.

    What I worry about for my master design is this..

    This is a normal cyclical flood, however sea levels have been steadily rising. I have not only read data on it, but I have also seen the difference in areas over time being a surfer that is constantly visiting the same areas for years at a time. Thus, I believe it is possible, although I am hoping unlikely that my climate can shift for lack of a better term & turn me into an island. Since I am supposed to plan for the future & allocate for time in a master design.

    Sea level rising, yes, world wide it can be an unmitigated disaster, but on a small scale I think this is something that can be managed & / or planned for on some level. That make sense?

    However, by the end of writing all this, I understand what you have written a bit better.
     
  9. Terra

    Terra Moderator

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    Pak obviously thats a flood plain so should be treated as one , you have a river so the water will drain away .Photo appears to be taken from high ground or maybe you were up a tree in your rubber boots (sorry couldnt help that lol) How close is the sea , do you have tidal influence where you are if sea level rises a bit will that make a permanant island i recon that would be perfect it would certainly thin out the unwanted visitors . I guess in your plan you may need a boat ( shallow draft and a sail of course ) ,maybe a house on pontoons which might be an option also for people like pebble it would be frightening to say the least to wake up wondering if your house was going to collapse on you in a earth quake . Isnt it interesting how different areas have different enviroment risks here the big one is fast fires , people in other parts of the world get tornadoes , Pak those winds are they common if so would be of great concern in your plan .
     
  10. Pakanohida

    Pakanohida Junior Member

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    Thank you for replying Terra, I very much appreciate it.

    My property at it's highest is at 180' above sea level, and I am 25 river miles from the ocean, but 15 miles land route, and even closer to the ocean when you use a straight line. The river is under tidal influence in this area. It is unconventional to think about perhaps, but I wonder with global climate change if someday the flood plain will turn into a brackish water sheltered bay.

    The house is located at the uppermost section of the property and I was taking the photo off the back porch. As for the winds, yes they are rather common and also are of great concern. I was walking a low area of the property and saw lots of young trees blown over to a 45 degree angle or more. It flat out looks like elk walked through and laid down knocking over trees! I'll take photos later when the sun rises enough to allow photography.

    I am currently trying to acquire historical weather data for the area, as well as historical weather information from the local indigenous tribe of American Indians in story form to learn more about the patterns here because I have heard people talk about this being part of a 25 to 30 year cycle for the area.
     

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