I believe we need a great depression

Discussion in 'The big picture' started by missf, Nov 25, 2008.

  1. JoanVL

    JoanVL Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    The world used to be divided into the capitalist free market economy and the communist planned economy. I suspect the Chinese have the best of both these worlds nowadays. I don't worry about them too much, I just worry about us in Australia, and how it will impact if they buy our resource companies.

    We are not going to lose our infrastructure whatever happens - we'll have education, law, housing, transport, health services, benefits, and safety nets for people in trouble. Our democracy will ensure any government that threatens these things will be voted out.

    I would like to see people working fewer hours, perhaps 20 to 25 a week, and spending the rest of the time growing their own produce, DIY, bringing up their kids themselves, cooking their own meals, making their own wine/beer, trading and bartering with each other, and using the internet to learn more about what interests them. I'd like to see fewer cars and much more public transport and bike tracks. These were impossible, daft ramblings before the threatened depression - but under these new circumstances, in these uncharted waters, who knows?????
     
  2. paradisi

    paradisi Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    prophecy?? checked the date of the OP
     
  3. springtide

    springtide Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    Prophesy?!!!!.... Since the US is taking up ownership of some of their banks by buying up their debt - Check this out!


    “Owners of capital will stimulate the working class to buy more and more of expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take more and more expensive credits, until their debt becomes unbearable. The unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks, which will have to be nationalized, and the State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism.”

    — Karl Marx, 1867, Das Kapital


    :drinkers:
     
  4. Michaelangelica

    Michaelangelica Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    -Wiki

    The way i see it Man A has a mortgage with Company B
    Company B leverages this asset maybe 6-20 times and buys shares and makes money
    Company B sells man A and a few others mortgage assets to Company C they leverage this 6-20 times and then sell on the mortgage packet to company D and so on ad infinitum to thousands, millions of banks, mutual funds and Australian Local Councils (who should be spending the money not investing it)
    Everyone is very happy. The market seems to be heading for the stratosphere and why wouldn't it as everyone is buying stock with money they don't have-- leveraged against an asset that they have since sold
    This works wonderfully
    Corporations, shareholders make heaps of money and reward their CEOs with obscenely high saalries and perks.
    China can't keep up the demand for consumer goods for Wal Mart et al.
    Australia can't ship 'dug-up-stuff' fast enough to get it to China

    Then the market falls.
    No problem, the stock market, brokers banks say your shares aren't worth as much now I need you to give us more money, this happens #1 everyone is still happy.
    Then the market falls again.
    the stock market, brokers banks say your shares aren't worth as much now I need you to give us more money, this happens #2 everyone is still happy
    Then the market falls.
    The stock market, brokers banks say your shares aren't worth as much now I need you to give us more money, this happens #3 but a few small companies go broke everyone is still happy
    Then the market falls.
    The stock market, brokers banks say your shares aren't worth as much now I need you to give us more money, this happens #4 a lot more companies go broke everyone is still happy but a little nervous
    Then the market falls-again
    brokers banks say your shares aren't worth as much now I need you to give us more money, this happens #5 a couple of big banks and corporations are in trouble the government bails them out a few CEOs fall on their swords/golden parachutes, everyone is relieved if not overly happy.

    Reporting season comes. A lot of companies have a lot of bad debts and are in a lot of trouble. Government bailouts happen across the globe. Sane Governments like the Brits nationalise (get something for their money) This can't happen in the protestant USA as socialism =evil, will sapping, anti-Christian, COMMUNISM.
    The stock market starts a steady slide, brokers banks say your shares aren't worth as much now I need you to give us more money, no money left.

    The stock market really stars a free fall there is panic, brokers banks say your shares aren't worth as much now I need you to give us more money, lots of people go broke. The banks grab all the money they can and lock it up. Very few people are happy. The banks won't lend; In fact the banking system is broken.

    Now if you reflect on this, the $54BILLION (over 4% of Aust.'s GDP in a good year) lost by the Scottish Bank, this was leveraged about 18 times. So these 'masters of capitalism' had actually created lots, and lots, and lots, of money based on nothing, except perhaps misplaced trust and belief in the system, -with a good dolop of the 'Old Boys Club" or 'Old School Tie' or in London the amorphous unnamed "The City".
    You would think people would have learned from Bond's collapse when The City in London decided this upstart house-painter from the colonies could not join their club. What Bond did, the The world's best banks have been doing in spades for years. Bond went to jail. Will they?

    No one has enough money to do all the "bailing out" necessary
    .
    That amount of money does not exist. It is an illusion , paper
    As Rudd said some Banks will have to be let fail. Yes they will. We should know in about 4-6 months how bad this is (yes we are no where near the bottom yet-- still a lot of company reports to come in). fortunately the States has all its debts in its own $s so it can just print more paper. So far China has not stopped buying this paper (You and I would call it a loan, based on the mutual trust and co-dependence of two friends or a married couple.)??

    Now, assume, I have just invented a solar panel that costs me a $1 to make. It produces 1,000 Kws of energy. Delighted I go to the bank to set up a factory to make and business to sell these . I can employ millions as demand for my product will be limitless. The bank says "No way Hose".
    "We have it all locked up we can't trust anyone these days. Our CEO- Scrooge Mac Duck- is using it as swimming pool."

    More unemployment less spending fear happens. The banking system just collapses. The Reserve/Federal banks reduces the cost of money to help them along ( 3.5% in Oz; 0.25% in Japan) but the Banks lend it at 7- 9-12-19%. "We have to have money for our shareholders1", they say. "We have so many bad debts as no-one is buying anything, so we have to foreclose on all these businesses!"

    Keynesian stimulus packets are tried, but have limited success, even the best governments haven't got THAT much money.

    The banking and financial systems and Economics are broken. Can they be fixed?

    Surviving
    make a garden, If you have money buy a gold brick or a silver ingot and bury it in the garden, barter and swap, on the permaculture forums. Don't take any crap from banks or even the sheriff. Ask for your credit card rate to be cut to 7% (twice what they are getting the money for)
    "When stands the Banks of England,
    England stands.
    When falls the Banks of England,
    England falls."



    "It's my tuppence"

    -From "Mary Poppins" the film


    Global World Economic Crisis Study Guide 101.
    by MA
    .
     
  5. Michaelangelica

    Michaelangelica Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/every-ec ... ml?page=-1
     
  6. missf

    missf Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    if that is so then we woujld all be healthier and have more community bonding, i dodnt think it was that bad, howeer I figured it would stop a lot of frivolous spending and resource wasting, how would that be so bad??
     
  7. robwolters_nl

    robwolters_nl Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    Not Karl Marx but Pat Caufield https://www.newsmutiny.com/pages/Communist_Reeducation.html. Still a quotation that describes the economic meltdown we are beginning to enter into.
     
  8. springtide

    springtide Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    Citing Karl Marx, who presaged: "The owners of capital will stimulate the need of the working class to take expensive, collateral loans to buy their condos, houses and technological products; and, at the end, these unpaid debts will result in the nationalization of the banks upon their bankrupcy, and so the state will be on the pathway to communism," Caufield emphasized the exigency of reestablishing preschool values in all post-adolescent Americans.


    Either way it is all a bit scary - especially if you are still stuck in or near the suburbs. Still i guess we all know the anthem - low or no debt, stable job- no matter what it is, crank that veggie patch, make sure your fences are high and your neighbours decent.
     
  9. Noz

    Noz Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    We are not in a depression. Depressions have a very particular definition.
    https://economics.about.com/cs/businessc ... ions_2.htm
     
  10. kimbo.parker

    kimbo.parker Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    Frankly, my cred. is on the line, if we don't have the greatest depression (ever) then my 4 sons will get to totally reject and ridicule me..

    "ho ho ho look at the hippy, look at his dwelling , look at his garden and his pathetic attempts to occupy a closed system"

    All that makes my position somewhat tenable is that these rich boys are loosing quid 'hand over fist',,,,whilst I prosper (relatively speaking)
    Global Economic Crisis ...bring it on!
    If it doesn't happen I swear I will get a job and become a capitalist bastard.

    regards, Kimbo
     
  11. aslanded

    aslanded Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    Thats all well and good but these things are all domestic spending and don't create any wealth for the country. Its the reason we are in this mess. People borrowed money and inflated the value of property, pushed wages up and generally inflated the economy with personal debt. We sent a lot of money overseas when we indulged in our cars, electronics, clothes, anything other than food and building materials. Because of the way the free trade agreements work and the policies of globalisation are rigged up we cant afford to manufacture here and pay the wages we demand. All we can do now is produce food and raw materials and we are about to loose these to overseas interests who are gaining leverage every time we borrow more billions from them to 'stimulate' our bloated economy and keep the ridiculously high standard of living going that we think is our god given right.

    The run away train that was our property market gave us the equity to borrow more and keep the cash flowing in the economy. The value of that property never really existed. Its only a good investment while its increasing in value and it can only increase in value while its a good investment. We used to have a lot more infrastructure when I was a youngun. We lost our telecom and power. We lost many large government funded institutions which gave apprenticeships for trades. They sold these off to pay off our national debts. Assets that belonged to, and built by us for us. Now we pay them and they take our money out of the country. They were sold to pay off our national debt. We have no way of paying the debt back this time. What are we going to loose now?
     
  12. aslanded

    aslanded Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    Incidentally I'm all for taking the plunge, doing the depression. Its the honest way out. Hell whats more Australian than copping a depression on the chin? We have become a nation of shiny car driving pansies. WE BOUGHT IT ALL ON CREDIT PEOPLE, WE DID NOT EARN IT! So the piper wants to get paid. Our lives have been degraded to 'backyard blitz' and 'big brother' can it honestly get any worse? Its superficial and soulless. Being poor is a breath of fresh air if we all do it. What a load off eh? Theres twenty something million of us in this massive country. If we starve we deserve to. Best to take this option, keep our assets and build new industries and opportunities based on a new sustainable life. The government wont like it, they loose all that revenue for their bloated bureaucracy. So who's interest is these stimulus packages in? The global giants, the ones we all work for. Grow your own food, make friends with your neighbors, form co ops and collectives. The time has arrived, off go the wheels, off go the heads...We just have to stop them morgaging our country, and shout FK THE GLOBAL ECONOMY!
     
  13. pumpkin

    pumpkin Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    My parents used to say this and it wasn't until I was older that I realised what they really meant. Hopefully the current financial crisis will turn back the clock on unfettered capitalism and unsustainable growth under the influence of the free market ideologues. It was a system that was destined to fail.

    If even the leaders at the G20 Summit are talking about regulation and sustainability there is some light ahead. We can only hope these early discussions don't fade into the background under pressure from big business interests.

    Human beings are highly adaptable and resilient when they need to be. Happiness is not found in wealth but in those important community and family networks that sustain us. Intrinsically we all know this and it will take a real community spirit, a willingness to help each other and reach back to the basics of simple living to achieve, at least, some further discussion on sustainable economies.

    We cannot keep growing and exploiting the earth's resources without consequences. The old growth models of economics need a big re-think and some major tweaking if we are to set up an equitable global system of food production and a more equitable flow of capital.
     
  14. sunnyslopes

    sunnyslopes Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    We don't need another "depression" in the sense of a long term economic turn down. The age of oil and cheep energy and cheep resources is coming to an end. It has nothing to do with economic cycles. It is as simple as that. Sails replaced oars, then steamships burned coal. Then petroleum replaced coal, horse and buggy, and all the cliches that go with that era.

    Although nuclear will be around for a while the reality is that most civilizations will have to find a low energy solution to energy decent in an attempt to support their current populations.

    Whatever you call it, permacuture, self reliance, sustainable agriculture, bio-dynamic, holistic, etc. These are the skills that will be required in the future. The best gift we can give future generations is to develop these stratagies to their fullest potential.
     
  15. JoanVL

    JoanVL Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    I've felt pretty good about self-reliance etc, having a small retirement pension which is sufficient together with my fruit trees, veggie and herb gardens, plus my chooks. Then all of a sudden I'm not so self-reliant. While collecting plantain and dandelion for the chooks, I tripped on the uneven ground of my son's garden (next door but one to mine) and broke my ankle. As my husband has just had a total knee replacement, his legacy of a lifetime of cycling, and suffers from a depressive illness, I was horrified because I just cannot afford the time to be injured. My neighbour heard me yell out in pain, got the ambulance, they took me to the local hospital and fixed me up temporarily until the swelling goes down, then on Monday I get a proper cast on.

    So now I'm stuck, relying not on myself, but on others - my sons, my neighbour, and the local disability service. I hate it, but I'm glad this country does have the infrastructure to help, and that I have family and friends. It's just that it has brought it all home to me that self-reliance is an illusion in the end. It is an aim, but not always a reality. I'm even having to get my neighbour's kids to feed the chooks and water my seedlings.
     
  16. knibbZ

    knibbZ Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    i agree being a young 25 year old i don't want to live in a world where it is based on the stock market. why do we need to be judged by what we own. the only thing that brothers me is we see the people who are just trying to live suffer and the people that cause the suffering getting handouts from the government to keep destroying our lifes.
    lets let the markets crash and put value on the things that really matter.
     
  17. eco4560

    eco4560 New Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    Hope you get your feet back under you again soon Joan!
     
  18. Hamishmac

    Hamishmac Junior Member

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    Re: I believe we need a great depression

    JoanVL,

    I know what you mean about feeling as if you are not and can´t ever be completely self-sufficient, but my take on it is that if you over the years give a little extra away by paying it forwards, whether by way of produce, advice, labour or help, friendship (or taxes on the fruits of your labour :( ) then calling in a favour a a time of need doesn´t detract from the ethos. Which is exactly what you are doing.

    Get well soon.

    Hamish
     

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