Extinction in two decades?

Discussion in 'The big picture' started by Ludi, Jul 19, 2012.

  1. Grasshopper

    Grasshopper Senior Member

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    Economic collapse will be the driver,of both long term good and short term bad for quite a few.
    I don't believe extinction in 20 years but a massive decline in population may happen as oil prices drive food prices out of reach of the very poor.
    We are seeing in Greece people leaving the city and returning to their villages where family and housing awaits and food can be grown,this will be a trend as the economies start collapsing.
    Permaculture will have its place as the horse/oxen inevitably replace the car.
    My parents/grand parents and great great great grandparents where all permaculturists,without even knowing,they lived simple pure seasonal organic farming lives with little inputs and very little real money.
    The only thing that stopped them was the lure of easier life in the city.
    Where working less still provided food, shelter and the occasional bling that hard work in the country couldn't match.
    The equation is changing back as the economies start contracting and peak everything starts to bite.
     
  2. Pakanohida

    Pakanohida Junior Member

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    Your reply shows me you know very little about the link that was provided, and the projects going on world wide.

    On the note of extinction, not going to happen unless something like a meteor impact was to occur, ie. a mega event. Our current model of "civilization" or rather standards of the masses set forth in 1st world nations however may go extinct since it is obviously endangered on multiple fronts.
     
  3. pebble

    pebble Junior Member

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  4. ecodharmamark

    ecodharmamark Junior Member

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    G'day Pebbs

    Not there, as it requires membership. However, I did read it here, at McPherson's own site.

    Personally, I'm of the view that the human population will crash to around half the current number sometime around the middle of this century. However, I do not hold the view that humans will ever fully become extinct. Rather, I'm more inclined to support the view that humanity will merely continue to evolve, albeit at an exponential rate.

    Cheerio, Marko
     
  5. Unmutual

    Unmutual Junior Member

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  6. Ludi

    Ludi Junior Member

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    Thank you, unmutual. I don't write theses, though. :)

    I'd like to ask us all (including myself) to please stay on topic, which is: "Guy McPherson has predicted humans will go extinct in about two decades. What hope can permaculture offer people in the face of this prediction?"

    This thread is not about our own speculations about doom, but rather about "what hope can permaculture offer to people in the face of this prediction?"

    Sorry about the link requiring membership, dumb of me to have not remembered that....
     
  7. gardenlen

    gardenlen Group for banned users

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    what hope? ludi,

    the way it PC, is going 'none'.

    i for one won't be holding my breathe, just getting on with the job of having some sufficiency, before they the gov' stop us from growing commercial type veg's and fruit in our own gardens.

    len
     
  8. pebble

    pebble Junior Member

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    Thanks Marko, I'll have read later. Fair enough Ludi, any one else in this thread could have pointed out that the link didn't work too ;-)

    I find it a bit frustrating that three pages of debate have happened without us being on the same page so to speak. How can we respond to Ludi's topic if we don't know what the premise is? How can we discuss human extinction in Mcpherson's terms if we don't know what those are? No wonder we get topic drift.
     
  9. Pakanohida

    Pakanohida Junior Member

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    If humans show one thing, it is the capacity to change, and even that is inconsistent. :) You and I are of like mind on this one.
     
  10. pebble

    pebble Junior Member

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    McPerson's article is disappointing. He fails to present any mechanism by which humans would go extinct. Sure he talks about positive climate change feedback loops escalating dangerously, but doesn't say how that would affect humans. Does he think we will starve because we won't be able to grow food? or what?

    Even in his worse case scenario I can see pockets of humans surviving and then increasing in population again.


    Just realised that the article Marko links to isn't the one Ludi had read.
     
  11. ecodharmamark

    ecodharmamark Junior Member

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    G'day Pebbs

    Sorry about that, mate. However, and as you no doubt did see from his blog, he is a prolific commentator on the wider subject, and it would appear he has the academic credentials to back it up. I'm sure you can read more about his ideas by following the above. I did, and it mostly does not make for comfortable reading. Having said that, I admire greatly his honesty and integrity.

    Regarding how it is going to happen: I would have thought that famine, disease and (biological?) warfare (just to name a few), are all logical consequences of catastrophic climate change. Those things alone should see at least half of us wiped out.

    This one is for you, Ludi: As to whether permaculture (or any one of the myriad 200-odd other socio-ecological paradigms) will 'save us': I doubt it. But, that way I see it, we have to at least try...

    However, right now I'm about to go and visit some family members and join them in the consumption of a bottle (or three) of a nice, local red. If in doing so we come up with any solutions, I'll let you all know ;).

    Adios amigos, Markos.
     
  12. pebble

    pebble Junior Member

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    Hi Marko, yes I know of McPherson and a bit of his work (although haven't read a huge amount), which is why I was disappointed. Perhaps in Ludi's link he actually details the mechanisms. Without the actual mechanisms he is either preaching to his followers (who already know his theory about the mechanisms) or he's being hyperbolic. His prolificness and academic creds nothwithstanding ;-)


    That's not even close to extinction though. There is a difference between massive die off and extinction. And yes, it's easy to see the mechanisms for mass die off (you could add nuclear radiation to the list I think, either from war or from failing power plants and waste dumps). I just don't see the ones that kill all humans to the point where they can't reproduce. Not saying it's not possible, just that McPherson didn't make his case. Maybe he serves a purpose in simply scaring people to start thinking deeper. I'm not sure.

    Personally, irrespective of mass die off or extinction, permaculture (and the other 200-odd paradigms) is the only ethical response (and may at least allow us to depart with an iota of dignity). It also makes me feel more human and part of nature. It's what we should be doing, whether we get to survive or not.
     
  13. Terra

    Terra Moderator

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    For goodness sake , he wouldnt know if he was , in the words of my father ( Punched , Bored or eaten out with white ants )
    check out the recipe section and try the plonk recipe .
    ;)
     
  14. ecodharmamark

    ecodharmamark Junior Member

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    Thanks for the recipe, Terra. Couldn't be any worse than the stuff I was drinking yesterday; ouch! I went out to the rhubarb this morning, told the lot it is destined for the bottle, and I swear it seemed to stir a little from its winter slumber. Thanks again, Markos.
     
  15. ecodharmamark

    ecodharmamark Junior Member

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    G'day Pebbs

    True, true. However, once the initial whack is felt, and half the world's human and non-human populations are decimated), of the remainder, most will have to struggle for a century or two. They may even just slowly fade away, or evolve into an altogether alien being. In the words of Hobbes, life (for most of the formally affluent) will once again become '...solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short'. A 'lucky' few will hunker down in their eco enclaves. But for the majority, the suburbs will be akin to the early Mad Max movies, or so says Prof. Newman.

    Cheerio, Markos
     
  16. pebble

    pebble Junior Member

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    I'm surprised to see you quoting Hobbes Marko. Do you believe that humans are in capable of self governance without the state?

    I don't see any proof that we would go the way of Mad Max, at least not in this corner of the world. I see it as a possibility, one amongst many, and there are definitely ones that look more promising. Probably an easier future here than in Oz simply because it's easier to adapt in place and grow food here. Not to mention water.

    Which begs the question of why you, or anyone, would assume the worst.
     
  17. ecodharmamark

    ecodharmamark Junior Member

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    G'day Pebbs

    Not at all, as much of my previous posting would attest to. However, given that time is of the essence, and that it will take a lot of time to turn the juggernaut (that is consumerist/capitalist society) around - remembering that China, India, about half the nation states of Africa, and about three quarters of South America all still want to drink from the consumerist's/capitalist's party bar - I just don't think we have enough time to do it!

    Nah, can't give you 'proof'. Best we can offer is theory, supported by a continuing evidenced-based, peer-reviewed research regime. However, if I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Holmgren's Lifeboat Scenario as being the most likely. With Brown and Green Techs coming in a close second, and Earth Steward a not too distant third.

    However, after having read them all again (in the process of responding here), it seems plausible that anyone of them could by the final outcome.

    Ahh, it keeps me on my toes, and reminds me of why I (and many like me, including your good self, I presume) keep fighting the good fight. You see, I don't have a god or gods to pray too, all I have is 'faith' in the ability of my fellow human beings to somehow over-ride the destructive meltdown that we all (well, most of us) seem intent on inflicting upon ourselves (and a fair whack of the world's non-human inhabitants, to boot). In this sense (concerning the 'nature' of humans), I'm firmly in the camp that supports Locke's ideas, as opposed to those of Hobbes.

    I hope that clarifies my position on the matter for you, Pebbs. If not, It could always change after I get around to making (and drinking) some of Terra's famous Rhubarb Wine. That's the trouble with we philosophers, we are such a fickle bunch of old grumps ;).

    Take care and cheerio, Markos.
     
  18. Ludi

    Ludi Junior Member

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    Can we keep on topic? I intended this thread to be not for the discussion of doom, but rather what hope can permaculture offer.
     
  19. ecodharmamark

    ecodharmamark Junior Member

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    G'day Ludi

    Sorry about that, I would have though the above was very relevant to the discussion. Just in case you missed it, here's a link to Holmgren's presentation:

    Holmgren (2010) Future Scenarios Presentation

    In order to have a conversation about permaculture, indeed about why we practice permaculture, one must face reality and understand that the odds are heavily stacked against us. Of course, permaculture (along with a myriad of other socio-ecological practices) could and should play a large role in mitigating the worst effects of climate change/peak oil. As to whether it will, only time will tell.

    Permaculture will only have an effect if it is allowed to guide the future development of community. Community-scaled humanity is our future. Understand and implement this, and we might have some 'hope'.

    Cheerio, Markos.
     
  20. Ludi

    Ludi Junior Member

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    Thanks, Markos. My frustration is because there are endless numbers of messageboards on which one can discuss doom, but only a few (and only two popular ones) on which one can discuss permaculture with other permaculturists. People may come here from the doom boards to find hope. This thread has been a pretty dismal showing of permacultural hope or optimism, in my opinion. I had "hoped" for better. I had "hoped" this would be a thread in which permaculturists would extol the usefulness of permaculture as a set of tools for addressing the problems we face and provide examples in action of solving problems and encourage visiting non-permaculturists to learn about and apply permaculture to their own lives and communities. But no, it was mostly just more doom.
     

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