Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

Discussion in 'General chat' started by brettjey, Nov 8, 2009.

  1. Dalzieldrin

    Dalzieldrin Junior Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    just to clear up any possible confusion, sam - the link i posted about vaccination was in reference to the subject of this thread - I wasn't posting it in relation to your travel plans.

    don't take medical advice from the internet - consult a qualified medical doctor
     
  2. gardenlen

    gardenlen Group for banned users

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    that link has a big pop up window asking for subscription blocks the article from being read.

    me i trust common sense above medico's in lots of case where simple hygene is all that is needed.

    no one yet has perished from s/f that didn't have some other medical condition which may have been the real cause. yet lots i've seen and heard indicate some have died from the vaccine?? for most by what's been on the media it is little more than bad case of the flu.

    len
     
  3. Dalzieldrin

    Dalzieldrin Junior Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    not sure which link you mean - the one sam posted, or the one I posted? I just checked mine and didn't get a pop-up

    anyone else having this problem?? if so, perhaps I could cut-and-paste the text


    good hygiene is always a good idea, eating a balanced diet and getting regular exercise is also a very good idea

    if people want to believe that that alone is sufficient to stop a viral infection, or any kind of infection, disease or malady for that matter, they're free to believe that...the gene pool is extremely grateful to them for their courageous sacrifice.
     
  4. gardenlen

    gardenlen Group for banned users

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    the link you posted.

    a cut and paste might be the way.

    i don't get viral infections usually and over my 50 years of life that i recal only ever seldom, those sorts of things can be dealt with very sucessfully by good hand hygene, an drop in a couple of vitmains that the body needs and it doesn't make or store, no snake oil in that at all. might be those who believe the body can run without vitmains i dunno??

    it all comes down to individual choice. probably no need to add them in on posts.

    len
     
  5. Dalzieldrin

    Dalzieldrin Junior Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    i can't bring myself to disagree with you that it's an individual's choice

    but how does one deal with that issue in light of this suggestion:

    good hygiene and a healthy diet with regular exercise is sufficient to prevent smallpox or polio; a vaccination against these agents is not necessary

    :?:
     
  6. Dalzieldrin

    Dalzieldrin Junior Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    Evidence in Medicine: Correlation and Causation
    Published by Steven Novella under Science and Medicine; Nov 18 2009


    There are two general approaches to subverting science-based medicine (SBM): anti-science and pseudoscience. Anti-scientific approaches are any that seek to undermine science as the determinant of the standard of care, often overtly advocating for spiritual or subjectively-based standards. Some attack the validity of science itself, usually with post-modernist philosophy.

    Pseudoscientific proponents, on the other hand, praise science, they just do it wrong. In reality there is a continuum along a spectrum from complete pseudoscience to pristine science, and no clear demarcation in the middle. Individual studies vary along this spectrum as well – there are different kinds of evidence, each with its own strengths and weaknesses, and there are no perfect studies. Further, when evaluating any question in medicine, the literature (the totality of all those individual studies) rarely points uniformly to a single answer.

    These multiple overlapping continua of scientific quality create the potential to make just about any claim seem scientific simply by how the evidence is interpreted. Also, even a modest bias can lead to emphasizing certain pieces of evidence over others, leading to conclusions which seem scientific but are unreliable. Also, proponents can easily begin with a desired conclusion, and then back fill the evidence to suit their needs (rather than allowing the evidence to lead them to a conclusion).

    For example, the anti-vaccine movement systematically endorses any piece of evidence that seems to support the conclusion that there is some correlation between vaccines and neurological injury. Meanwhile, they find ways to dismiss any evidence which fails to show such a connection. They, of course, accuse the scientific community of doing the same thing, and each side cites biases and conflicts in the other to explain the discrepancy. It is no wonder the public is confused.

    How, then, do we use the evidence to arrive at reliable scientific conclusions? That is what I will be discussing in this series of posts, beginning with a discussion of correlation and causation, but here is a quick overview: SBM is achieved through a consideration of scientific plausibility and a systematic review of the clinical evidence. In other words – all scientific evidence is considered in a fair and thorough manner, including basic science and clinical evidence, and placed in the context of what we know about how the world works. Further, we do not rely upon any individual’s systematic review of the evidence, but on the consensus of analysis among experts and institutions – so that any biases are likely to average out.

    This leads us to the final continuum – the consensus of expert opinion based upon systematic reviews can either result in a solid and confident unanimous opinion, a reliable opinion with serious minority objections, a genuine controversy with no objective resolution, or simply the conclusion that we currently lack sufficient evidence and do not know the answer. It can also lead, of course, to a solid consensus of expert opinion combined with a fake controversy manufactured by a group driven by ideology or greed and not science. The tobacco industry’s campaign of doubt against the conclusion that smoking is a risk factor for lung cancer is one example. The anti-vaccine movement’s fear-mongering about vaccines and autism is another.

    Correlation and Causation

    Much of scientific evidence is based upon a correlation of variables – they tend to occur together. Scientists are careful to point out that correlation does not necessarily mean causation. The assumption that A causes B simply because A correlates with B is a logical fallacy – it is not a legitimate form of argument. However, sometimes people commit the opposite fallacy – dismissing correlation entirely, as if it does not imply causation. This would dismiss a large swath of important scientific evidence.

    For example, the tobacco industry abused this fallacy to argue that simply because smoking correlates with lung cancer that does not mean that smoking causes lung cancer. The simple correlation is not enough to arrive at a conclusion of causation, but multiple correlations all triangulating on the conclusion that smoking causes lung cancer, combined with biological plausibility, does.

    Correlation must always be put into perspective. There are two basic kinds of clinical scientific studies that may provide evidence of correlation – observational and experimental. Experimental studies are ones in which some intervention is given to a study population. In experimental studies it is possible to control for many variables, and even reasonably isolate the variable of interest, and so correlation is a well-designed experimental study is very powerful, and we generally can assume cause and effect. If active treatment vs placebo correlates with a better outcome, then we interpret that as the treatment causing the improved outcome. (”Well-designed” is the key here – a subject of a future post.)

    In observational studies populations are observed in the real world, but no intervention is being given. Observational studies can be very powerful, because they can look as extremely large numbers of subjects (more than is practical in an experimental study) but the weakness is that all variables cannot be controlled for. Researchers can account for known variables (race, age, and sex are common), but it is always the unknown variables that can confound such studies.

    In observational studies lack of correlation is easier to interpret than a positive correlation – if there is no correlation between A and B then we can pretty much rule out a causal relationship. The only caveat is that a correlation is being obscured by a factor that was not accounted for. When a correlation is found in observational studies – that is when the assumption of cause and effect must be avoided, and more thorough analysis is required.

    If A correlates with B, then A may cause B, B may cause A, A and B may be caused by a common variable C, or the correlation may be a statistical fluke and not “real”. Further studies are then required to confirm the correlation and any specific causal hypothesis.

    To use the smoking example again – the hypothesis that smoking causes cancer as the causal relationship to explain the correlation raises several predictions, all later confirmed. The duration of smoking increases risk of cancer (a dose response relationship), stopping smoking reduces the risk of cancer, greater intensity of smoking increases risk, and smoking unfiltered vs filtered cigarettes is associated with higher risk. These various correlations only make sense if smoking causes lung cancer. Further, tobacco smoke contains substances demonstrated to be carcinogens – so there is biological plausibility.

    The greatest abuse of the correlation equals causation fallacy is the assumption of cause and effect from a single anecdotal case. Here we are not talking about an observational study where statistics are brought to bear on hundreds or thousands of subjects, but the uncontrolled observation of a single individual. Such cases are very compelling to the human psyche- we are more moved by stories than statistics. But they make for very weak scientific evidence. This is not to say they are worthless – even a single case can raise the question of a possible correlation. But they cannot be used to establish even that a correlation is real. (Anecdotes generate questions, not answers.)

    Again to use the anti-vaccine movement as an example, it is easy to generate fear based upon individual cases of bad outcomes after receiving the vaccine. We are hard-wired to find such events compelling. But such correlations should and do occur on a regular basis, even without any causal factor. Further, it is natural, after a new disease or disorder appears, to think back over any recent events that may explain it. Our minds will latch onto anything that sticks out, and over time our memories will even morph to make the apparent correlation more compelling.

    Here is an anti-vaccine and conspiracy site that is essentially collecting anecdotes of correlation between the flu vaccine and miscarriages among women. This goes beyond the assumption of cause and effect from correlation, to the assumption of correlation from anecdote. Common things occur together commonly. Given the number of spontaneous miscarriages, and the number of pregnant women receiving the flu vaccine, we would expect there to be thousands of women who miscarry within 24 hours of receiving the flu vaccine, just be chance alone. So first we have to ask – is this a real correlation?

    The answer, according to systematic reviews of existing evidence, is no. There is no apparent risk of adverse outcome in pregnancy from the flu vaccine.

    The media tends to develop a narrative they think will sell, and then that becomes the story they are telling. In the midst of this severe flu season, the narrative the media is telling is of dramatic adverse events following the flu vaccine. These events are always there, because people are always getting sick, and when you vaccinate millions of people, some of them will get sick afterwards by chance alone. Individual stories are therefore misleading – we need statistics on large number of people to arrive at any conclusions. But statistics don’t make headlines – individual stories do.

    The CDC and the WHO are tracking the statistics as the seasonal and H1N1 flu vaccines are rolled out. In the end, these statistics will tell the story.

    In conclusion, correlation is an extremely valuable type of scientific evidence in medicine. But first correlations must be confirmed as real, and then every possible causational relationship must be systematically explored. In the end correlation can be used as powerful evidence for a cause and effect relationship between a treatment and benefit, or a risk factor and a disease. But it is also one of the most abused types of evidence, because it is easy and even tempting to come to premature conclusions based upon the preliminary appearance of a correlation.
     
  7. gardenlen

    gardenlen Group for banned users

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    are you going over the top a bit?

    i'm talking about common flu/virus and other like ailments, what are you talking on?

    don't know maybe you don't watch media and other i'net stuff but much is touted about the risks of vaccinations, even those that used to be simply accepted many people wanting to opt' out due to the documented risks. even that cervical cancer one they give the girls heard a number of people had adverse reactions, bet you never get to hear the worst of them, they get swept under the carpet or worse. how many babies have suffered from those vaccinations. need to listen up a bit one med' scientist stated that nowadays because returns/profits/dividends are wanted faster they are not going to be taking maybe up to 50 years for fixes they want the end user to have 50/50 risk factor take it poorly tested and hardly ever human tested, if it works on you good luck if it doesn't bad luck, not for this little black duck anyway.

    and this swine flu hit with a mad panic, close schools airlines you name it talk, now what do we hear almost nothing did it go away?

    len
     
  8. Dalzieldrin

    Dalzieldrin Junior Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    the suggestion i posted is over the top - but i was trying to illustrate that good hygeine and diet are no defense against viral infection...very easy to see when you think in terms of polio and small-pox.

    I thought you were talking about swine flu - if you're just talking about common cold then we don't have an argument. practice good hygeine, eat healthy, keep fit and you'll probably catch it anyway, but big deal, it's only a cold.

    swine flu is a different kettle of things you put in kettles - if you want to believe it's hype, you're free to do that.
     
  9. milifestyle

    milifestyle New Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    Does the swine flu vaccination give life long immunity to this strain of swine flu ?

    Does dealing with the symptoms of swine flu and full recovery give life long immunity to this strain of swine flu ?
     
  10. Dalzieldrin

    Dalzieldrin Junior Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!


    i'd hazard a guess that the answer to the first question is yes - ie. immunity to this strain. happy for someone to corerct me on that.

    re. 2nd question - best answered by asking a slightly modified version:

    Does dealing with the symptoms of flu and full recovery give life long immunity to this strain of flu ?

    treating the symptoms doesn't confer immunity itself - if you mean that by treating the symptoms you increase your chances of staying alive and let your immune system clear the infection, ie you recover...then yes, I'm pretty sure this means you're set in good stead to fight the same strain next time it appears

    but that's quite different to believing that good hygeine and vitamin supplements will be a sufficient barrier to infection
     
  11. gardenlen

    gardenlen Group for banned users

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    g'day eric,

    if it is correctly identified as what it is then my belief is once you have contracted a strain of virus then the immunity level is good that also might depend on how good your immune system is. polio was a fly borne or carried by flies which might have had a lot to do with the hygene in those days, when i was a kid it was still rife in the community but there again not everyone got(none of the kids in our street least wise) it even before the vaccine came out. if i recall that vaccine was not developed overnight like the swine flu one has been, that is where the danger for many could come. can't recall small pox in my childhood always imagined it was in over seas countries, so those planning on travel had to be immunised before they travelled.

    it is like the hype about the need to pasteurise milk, ok there where kids who suffered muteness and deafness supposedly associated with drinking raw milk from diseased cows, but then why was it that so few actually suffered not one of the kids i played with ever did, and we all drank raw milk. and now that the herd are disease free there is no need for pasturisation except now that farmers have developed bad habits like not washing off the teats before milking. also heard a scientist say that the original testing prior to pasteurisation was fllawed, not the first time i'd suggest and won't be the last time.

    also as they are planning on making s/f vaccination compulsory, that does not instill trust in my mind, bet they don't take any responsibility when some suffer in some way, with a hastily developed and poorly tested product. blind faith be carefull.

    len
     
  12. milifestyle

    milifestyle New Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    Dalz,

    Yes, i agree with you on that.

    Good hygeine and Vitamin supplements are not a barrier to infection... being hygenic and healthy would, IMO make it easier to fight the infection. One of the reasons any deaths associated with SF seem to have in the majority of cases occured in people with underlying health issues.

    A weight lifter is more likely to succeed at lifting 200kgs if he has the muscle strength gained through good diet and perhaps supplements compared to an attempt to lift the same weight by a guy whose main excercize is bending the elbow with their favourite alcoholic beverage as a hand weight...
     
  13. milifestyle

    milifestyle New Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    len,

    Yeah, my understanding is that immunity is gained through contracting and recovery of an illness... Swine flu parties were common in the US at the beginning of the outbreak (People deliberately contracting the virus to build an immunity to it).

    I'm not against vaccinations. I am not against any form of medication that treats the individual. I do, however believe we have a right to know what we are consuming to enable us to make that individual choice. Hence my anti-chemical campaign.

    I AM however, against compulsory vaccinations. Autonomy within the bounds of governing law. If the law says Vaccination for swine flu is compulsory, i'd fight the law, not the vaccination.
     
  14. gardenlen

    gardenlen Group for banned users

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    they aren't??? i even reckon you'd go a long way to find a doc' who would even, in total agree with that! i haven't had any colds or viral sicknesse for over a decade now all i'd say due to simple hygene practises and supplement necessary vitamins in the body and good diet nothing fancy or dogmatic, i visit the doc's surgery probably more than any others at least twice a month and guess what they have sick people in that little waiting room, but i wash my hands before leaving the surgery and before eating, so you tell me what it is that i am doing wrong??

    i realy can't beieve what is being touted here, give our bodies over to science and forge good care naturally with no chemicals. a bt of a barrow being pushed by vested interests?

    len
     
  15. milifestyle

    milifestyle New Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    In that respect, yes, good hygeine and supplements can help fight off infection, but its not so much that your not getting the virus, but your health is so good, the instance of it is negligible to the point what could develop into pneumonia in an unhealthy person could develop as a runny nose in a healthy person such as yourself...
     
  16. Dalzieldrin

    Dalzieldrin Junior Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    I should clarify: what i was meaning to say was that you can wash your hands and eat a healthy diet all you like but when a virus gets into your 'system' those actions won't do you any good

    vaccination shouldn't need to be compulsory - the polio vaccinations weren't were they? parents volunteered their children for the clinical trials willinging - why? because they understood that the benefits far outweighed the risks - not an esoteric thought process, the results of what happens when you got the infection were all about them.

    we can argue all we like about the ethics (and dangers) of being allowed to turn a buck in making a vaccine (and let's get something straight, that isn't science, it's business, just like selling hamburgers), and we may find that we share a lot of common ground on that subject, but the real issue is stopping people dying of a preventable disease. Most people alive today have no experience (direct or otherwise) of the terrors of things like polio and small pox - i think that if we saw people around us dropping off every other day, ie. if the risk was right there in front of us, all this cozy cynicism would disappear overnight. vaccination wouldn't need to be compulsory, people would clamour for it!

    in which case...maybe the best thing way for 'science' to respond to swineflu would have been to make no response at all - let it get out of hand, wait till it becomes super virulent and starts killing thousands upon thousands everyday all over the globe and then it could proclaim triumphantly "SEE, WE'RE NOT MAKING THIS CRAP UP!". Something, I don't think that's the best way to have reponded. yay for science
     
  17. gardenlen

    gardenlen Group for banned users

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    with polio as far as i can recall back in the early 50's when the fear of it was rife us kids all got vaccinated at school, this bfore the salk vaccine i think which was taken orally.

    this quote:

    from this site: https://www.polioeradication.org/disease.asp

    but anyway as far as i know the vaccination program is not ongoing? unless it is included somehow in those triple antigen vaccinations baby's are given.

    yep all about money and that is where the danger lieth.

    len
     
  18. pebble

    pebble Junior Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    h1n1/influenza and polio, apples and oranges.

    Polio afaik doesn't mutate easily. Influenza does, readily. So any single vaccine is effective against only one strain. Which means multiple vaccines over one's lifetime. Science currently has no way of measuring the risk of this. We have no long-term studies on the h1n1 vaccine, so mass vaccination will be an experiment. There are already adverse reaction reports from h1n1 vaccinations. It's not as simple as saying the vaccine saves lives, because it destroys others too. AFAIK the vaccine doesn't guarantee that you won't die from influenza or the h1n1 strain.

    The evidence so far shows that the h1n1 flu is no more dangerous than seasonal flu. In that case, if you have a competent immune system then things like eating well, practicing hygiene, exercising, exposure to sunlight etc are all valid responses along with knowing how to manage the flu if/when you get it. It's likely that having the h1n1 flu now will confer some immunity against it in the future. Having the flu now and knowing how to manage it at home is an important skill should the virus mutate into something more deadly, when many people are going to have to rely on old fashioned health care to survive (there simply won't be enough medical care if there is a serious epidemic).
     
  19. Dalzieldrin

    Dalzieldrin Junior Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    you're right pebble, there aren't any certainties - it's a case of balancing probabilities

    all of which gets clouded with one's perceptions: imagine a vaccine that's almost 100% effective, but there's, say, a one-in-a-million chance of an adverse reaction

    in a population of one billion, that's roughly a million people who'll have an adverse reaction - of those, some will have pre-existing conditions (of one form or another) that may mean that the addition of an adverse reaction is fatal. no-one's going to pay any attention to the >999 million who were saved, only that the vaccine is a mass-killer.

    the point i was making above is that here and now people have a particular outlook on the question of balancing the chance of almost-certain death or disfigurement/disability against a 1-in-a-million adverse reaction...if their loved ones started dying around them that perspective would change very rapidly.

    i realise this doesn't apply directly to swineflu - i'm talking about vaccination in general
     
  20. milifestyle

    milifestyle New Member

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    Re: Bad news on swine influenza A (H1N1). Help to survive!

    Does that mean the sacrifice of 1 human life in every million is acceptable for the sake of the greater good ?

    That sounds positive on the surface... and as you say, the perspective chages dramatically when its your child, brother, mother, sister cousin, aunt, friend, uncle or workmate whose funeral one as to attend for the sake of a greater good!
     

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