A "Must Read" Economic Analysis

Discussion in 'The big picture' started by Jez, Feb 11, 2007.

  1. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    I've been trying to explain this (admittedly badly) for a while, but this article by Simon Ratcliffe (chair of the ASPO for SA) puts it really simply and beautifully in terms anyone can understand:



    The growth example (6%) in the article is for South Africa. As it goes on to state, India and China are growing at 10% - doubling every 7 years.

    Australia's forecast growth for 2007 is 3.6% - we will (theoretically) double in 19 years. At a growth rate of 3.6%, we will consume more energy and resources over those 19 years than we have in our entire history.

    Obviously, we don't have the raw resources or energy to do that, so once we reach the physical limits of energy and resources, growth HAS to stall, decline, or collapse - eventually all three in turn.

    The above is why we can say with absolute certainty that under our current economic system, we are headed for certain negative growth and all that goes with it - rising widespread unemployment (if you expect to be paid in money), a collapse in the value of shares, higher costs for basic items, widespread default on mortgages, widespread bankruptcy etc.

    I add the above not to frighten people, merely to try and restate in simple terms why the economy cannot keep growing indefinitely, why the economy can never rebound (merely be totally restructured around a concept other than money), and why it is so important to try and reduce your vulnerability as much as possible in the coming years.
     
  2. Honeychrome

    Honeychrome Junior Member

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    Thanks for that link- very good article. So, where is Ratcliffe putting his money anyway?

    Aside from trying to pay off my land, then buy seeds/trees etc. etc. I've been tempted to buy up and 'renovate' every old three-speed bike I come across. At least here in the US they are utterly underappreciated though to my mind they're just about the pinnacle of mankind's achievment in transportation. I suspect they'll soon be back in demand!

    Sorry, gettin' off topic....
     
  3. macree

    macree Junior Member

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    Interesting way of looking at resource depletion and economic growth. Good article, Jez
     
  4. gbell

    gbell Junior Member

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    If anybody wants to see this subject in even more detail, there's a mind-altering/worrying video by Professor Bartlett that's pretty famous in all the gloom-and-doom circles.

    Very interesting and worth the time. This is reality everyone!

    https://www.globalpublicmedia.com/lectures/461
     
  5. Honeychrome

    Honeychrome Junior Member

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    What a great lecture- thanks for posting the link.
     
  6. 9anda1f

    9anda1f Administrator Staff Member

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    Thank you Jez and Gbell for all of your continued hard work to get the message out. Know that I/we read it all with rapt fascination.

    Dr. Albert Bartlett's speech says it all ... in a very down-to-earth way. My connection could not support the streaming video, so I "watched" it in audio-only ... like we used to "watch" the radio in the old days! :lol: :lol:

    Definitely worth hearing, or reading (the transcript is available too).

    9anda1f
     
  7. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    I'm really strapped for time tonight, but thanks for your responses everyone, I look forward to having a bit of time to explore this subject further soon.
     
  8. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Have to be up there HC, I'd say horse based transport could well be better long term, while railways and waterways would be right in the mix.

    --------

    Thanks macree, glad you enjoyed it.

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    Thanks very much gbell, I somehow missed that lecture when it was first released so I was very pleased you posted it for our benefit.

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    Thanks 9, glad you got a lot out of it.

    -------

    I'm surprised so few people have viewed this thread...I'll have to remember to omit the word "economic" in the future. :lol:
     
  9. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    I forgot to add some more stuff related to this topic:


     
  10. Alex M

    Alex M Junior Member

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    Ah, the falacy of economic growth driven by debt. Anyone out there read "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" by John Perkins?

    https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-Econo ... F8&s=books

    I heard a commentator on the radio just today saying that China has far greater debt than it can service, and that predictions of the rate of growth have proven to be "over-ambitious". All the hallmarks of another successful economic hit.
     
  11. ho-hum

    ho-hum New Member

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  12. Honeychrome

    Honeychrome Junior Member

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    Aw heck, while we're posting interesting articles....:

    https://www.bullnotbull.com/archive/billions.html

    I know there are refutations of this analysis out there, but it's something to think about. It does relate directly to the Richard Douthwaite interview.
     
  13. Honeychrome

    Honeychrome Junior Member

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  14. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Cheers HC, good stuff.
     
  15. ecodharmamark

    ecodharmamark Junior Member

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    G'day Jez :)

    I did read your post soon after it hit the screen, but just got tied up elsewhere and forgot to respond. This is probably a good thing because my observations over the past couple of weeks mean that I can now give a more detailed response.

    Planning has undergone many paradigm shifts throughout the modern ages, and mostly these have been in direct response to the social-political and economic whims of the time. However throughout the ages there have been a few times where forward-thinking people got behind the reins, Walter Burley and Marion Mahony Griffin (see link below) for example.

    https://www.idealcity.org.au/

    Today we are on the cusp of great and fundamental change, no less bought about by the fact that we have tipped the natural/false economic scales and are now consuming far more energy than the natural capital deposits of the planet can provide. We still think we can have our (yellow) cake and eat it too! But we are fast coming to the realisation that this is not the case.

    In the past two weeks I have personally spoken to over 50 student, post-grad, and certified-practicing planners from both the private and public sectors. Regardless of whether they work in statutory or strategic realms, all agree on one thing - change is coming, and it is coming fast!

    What I'm reading (and in the case of Holmgren, re-reading) this week:

    An in-depth look at planning history in Australia:

    The Australian Metropolis: A Planning History
    (2000) Hamnett & Freestone (eds) Allen & Unwin, Australia

    Future options with all matters concerning sustainabilty:

    In Search of Sustainability (2005) Goldie, Douglas & Furnass (eds) CSIRO Publishing, Australia

    Future options concerning socio-political and economic factors:

    Beyond Right and Left: New Politics and the Culture Wars
    (2005) McKnight. Allen & Unwin, Australia

    How it all fits together - from a permacultural perspective:

    Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability (2003) Holmgren. Holmgren Publishing, Australia

    Keep up the great work, Jez! I have niether the time nor the energy to source the info that you provide, so thank you very much for all your hard work. But then, I guess this is what makes us permies such a formidable team :D.

    Cheerio, Mark.
     
  16. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Cheers Mark, your comment regarding the outlook from all those planners and budding planners is very refreshing. I enjoyed the link too - thanks for that.

    You may well enjoy this link (Click To View) on pattern building - the article also refers to a book called 'The Timeless Way of Building'...that and 'A Pattern Language: Towns, Buildings, Construction' both sound like very good reads if you haven't already come across them.
     
  17. Honeychrome

    Honeychrome Junior Member

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    Ah, the Christopher Alexander books! They really are amazing, and it's interesting that they were written so long ago, yet are now getting more and more attention. If you ever happen to see them in a used bookstore grab 'em! They're pricey new!

    Ideally you read 'The Timeless Way of Building' first, then use 'A Pattern Language' as a sort of reference. There's a third in the series called 'The Oregon Experiment' which is about a specific practical application of the design methods expounded on in the first two. Really good stuff, and don't be put off by the staid cover graphics and old, school-textbook looking black and white photos.
     
  18. ecodharmamark

    ecodharmamark Junior Member

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    G'day Jez :)

    Thanks for the fantastic link! I've added it to ten-pages of planning-related links that I've put together for my fellow students, as a bit of a primer for further study. The 'Pattern Building' movement is now permeating its way through Latrobe University :D.

    Cheerio, Mark.
     
  19. RobWindt

    RobWindt Junior Member

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  20. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    My pleasure Mark, and many thanks to HC and Rob for adding more great thoughts, resources and info.
     

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