Climate change happening fast

Discussion in 'The big picture' started by Michaelangelica, Nov 28, 2009.

  1. Michaelangelica

    Michaelangelica Junior Member

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    Climate change accelerating beyond expectations, urgent emissions reductions required, say leading scientists
    November 25, 2009
    Global ice-sheets are melting at an increased rate; Arctic sea-ice is disappearing much faster than recently projected, and future sea-level rise is now expected to be much higher than previously forecast, according to a new global scientific synthesis prepared by some of the world's top climate scientists.
    [center:3q0a4gkp][​IMG]
    In 2008 carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were ~40% higher than those in 1990.[/center:3q0a4gkp]
    In a special report called ‘The Copenhagen Diagnosis', the 26 researchers, most of whom are authors of published IPCC reports, conclude that several important aspects of climate change are occurring at the high end or even beyond the expectations of only a few years ago.
    [center:3q0a4gkp][​IMG]
    Without significant mitigation, the report says global mean warming could reach as high as 7 degrees Celsius by 2100.[/center:3q0a4gkp]
    The report also notes that global warming continues to track early IPCC projections based on greenhouse gas increases. Without significant mitigation, the report says global mean warming could reach as high as 7 degrees Celsius by 2100.

    The Copenhagen Diagnosis, which was a year in the making, documents the key findings in climate change science since the publication of the landmark Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.
    [center:3q0a4gkp][​IMG]
    Ice bergs Global ice-sheets are melting at an increased rate; Arctic sea-ice is disappearing much faster than recently projected.[/center:3q0a4gkp]
    The new evidence to have emerged includes:

    * Satellite and direct measurements now demonstrate that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass and contributing to sea level rise at an increasing rate.
    * Arctic sea-ice has melted far beyond the expectations of climate models. For example, the area of summer sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the average projection from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
    * Sea level has risen more than 5 centimeters over the past 15 years, about 80% higher than IPCC projections from 2001. Accounting for ice-sheets and glaciers, global sea-level rise may exceed 1 meter by 2100, with a rise of up to 2 meters considered an upper limit by this time. This is much higher than previously projected by the IPCC. Furthermore, beyond 2100, sea level rise of several meters must be expected over the next few centuries.
    * In 2008 carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were ~40% higher than those in 1990. Even if emissions do not grow beyond today's levels, within just 20 years the world will have used up the allowable emissions to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius.

    The report concludes that global emissions must peak then decline rapidly within the next five to ten years for the world to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the very worst impacts of climate change.

    To stabilize climate, global emissions of carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases need to reach near-zero well within this century, the report states.

    The full report is available at:- https://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org
    Statements by Authors

    "We have already almost exceeded the safe level of emissions that would ensure a reasonably secure climate future. Within just a decade global emissions need to be declining rapidly. A binding treaty is needed urgently to ensure unilateral action among the high emitters."
    Professor Matthew England, ARC Federation Fellow and joint Director of the Climate Change Research Centre of the University of New South Wales, Australia.

    "Sea level is rising much faster and Arctic sea ice cover shrinking more rapidly than we previously expected. Unfortunately, the data now show us that we have underesti­mated the climate crisis in the past."
    Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans and a Department Head at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

    "The massive climate change risk of continuing our surging carbon emissions is clear. It's imperative for us to move to a low carbon economy or we risk a climate crunch that would be far more damaging to humanity this century than any financial crisis."
    Dr. Ben McNeil, Climate Change Research Centre of the University of New South Wales, Australia.

    "The latest data all support the longstanding predictions that the Earth will keep warming if we keep emitting greenhouse gases like we do now - and nobody really knows how well Australia or the rest of the world could cope with a dramatically warmer climate."
    Professor Steven Sherwood, Professor of Atmospheric Physics, Climate Change Research Centre, the University of New South Wales, Australia.

    For more information contact:
    Stephen Gray +61 403 802 027 (mobile) or [email protected]
    Matthew England +61 425 264 485 (mobile) or [email protected]
    Ben McNeil +61 401 336 857 (mobile) or [email protected]
    https://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/cli ... cientists/
     
  2. milifestyle

    milifestyle New Member

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  3. Flying Binghi

    Flying Binghi Junior Member

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    Re: Climate change happening fast

    DONT PANIC, DONT PANIC, ....PANIC NOW

    And what do all these hysterical so-called scientists have in common ?

    Professor Matthew England, ARC Federation Fellow and joint Director of the Climate Change Research Centre.

    Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans and a Department Head at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

    Dr. Ben McNeil, Climate Change Research Centre of the University of New South Wales, Australia.

    Professor Steven Sherwood, Professor of Atmospheric Physics, Climate Change Research Centre

    You guessed it - they all get paid to push the climate change agenda. methinks an integrity audit would need to be done of any claims these so-called scientists make before their claims could be taken as credible.




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  4. milifestyle

    milifestyle New Member

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    Re: Climate change happening fast

    Personally, I couldn't give a shit whether they are right or wrong... there is still good reason to reduce emissions on both sides of the argument even the biggest sceptic would be intelligent enough to know that.
     
  5. gardenlen

    gardenlen Group for banned users

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    Re: Climate change happening fast

    i'm with f/b,

    for the faceless scientists it is all about wealth and position pushing the barrow of deceipt.

    why shoud australians suffer and i believe they are, poor getting poorer those who feel affluent(the plastic wealthy) now becoming the new poor all for what our imput of less that 2% to the total carbon issue. and what is their best suggestion throw money at it all the while they get paid well. and after what 20, 40 100 years when it becomes painfully obvious that throwing money at it has failed and that even if we cut our less than 2% to zero it would make no impact on the big pcture.

    be like the the flea riding on the elephants back over a sway bridge and when they go to the other side the flea said "boy we shook that bridge up hey"

    replant the habitat to repair our local environment, climate change is part of the planets natural system, and nought we can do to change it. read han's christian anderson's fable (a lesson in not getting conned) "the emporer's new clothes"fits this new science very well.

    so while aussies suffer the big polluters keep polluting along their merry way.

    len
     
  6. milifestyle

    milifestyle New Member

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    Re: Climate change happening fast

    hmmmm, my dads doctor mst have been wrong, he told my dad if he knocked off smoking his lungs would repair over the next few years and his cough would slowly go away.

    Climate change is just a macro version of the same thing.
     
  7. gardenlen

    gardenlen Group for banned users

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    Re: Climate change happening fast

    hardly a good comparrison eric,

    self inflicted illness through a bad habit, and the doc didn't say that if your father threw money at it his problem it would go away, and as i found out recently after giving smoking up 30 years ago when your system crashed the doc's then tell you the real story the damage from smoking was already done, now that is not what to purport on public health ads on the media is it? i only smoked off and on for about 17 years.

    still no answer on how our less than 2 % imput will make any diffrence for all the pain the poor and the yet to be poor will go through.

    len
     
  8. milifestyle

    milifestyle New Member

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    Re: Climate change happening fast

    ?? Ápart from the ocassional volcano and a slight move closer to the sun, i'm pretty sure global warming IS self inflicted.

    I could be wrong but i remember reading the brain is the only organ whose cells can't regenerate.

    I agree its a stupid solution to the problem. But one the intelligence of our nation can call the best option.

    Simple fix...

    Halve any taxes from (insert non-polluter here) using clean technologies... Double all taxes on (insert polluter here) using polluting technologies. Environment wins - Consumer wins... Business wins if it chooses to WANT to.

    The consumer will move to the cheaper / cleaner version. The polluter will either have to clean up there act... or go out of business. Increase the benefits to businesses starting up using clean technologies.
     
  9. purplepear

    purplepear Junior Member

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    Re: Climate change happening fast

    Dats wid i'm talkin bout Eric - well done. Oh by the way keep the language down :p
     
  10. ecodharmamark

    ecodharmamark Junior Member

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    Re: Climate change happening fast

    G'day Len

    The scientists (and others) who have worked hard for over one hundred years (around the amount of time that anthropogenic climate change has been tested as a theory) were/are not faceless, mate. Many of them in fact are alive and well, living, working and raising families here in Australia. Two of them I have had the pleasure of being in their audience:

    Mark Diesendorf - based on his belief that science, technology and economics should serve the community at large, he has been at various times secretary of the Society for Social Responsibility in Science (Canberra), co-founder and vice-president of the Sustainable Energy Industries Council of Australia, co-founder and president of the Australasian Wind Energy Association, president of the Australia New Zealand Society for Ecological Economics (ANZSEE) and vice-president of Appropriate Technology for Community and Environment (APACE)... (see: https://www.ies.unsw.edu.au/staff/mark.html).

    Barrie Pittock - has been involved in climate research for many decades, and was founding leader of the CSIRO’s Climate Impact Group in the late '80s. He made major contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third Assessment Report, and was a lead author of the chapter on key vulnerabilities in the panel’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report. He has been on the editorial board of several scientific journals, and remains on the board of the journal Climatic Change. As well as his 2005 book Climate Change: Turning Up the Heat, he has over 250 scientific publications to his name... (see: https://www.acsis.unimelb.edu.au/f_national-fellows.html).

    Both of the above have very recently published books, and each have devoted much time and energy in those works to dispelling all of the myths that the anthropogenic climate change deniers have put forward over the many previous years. And, in my opinion, both are really nice, genuine, honest and decent people. I am happy for these guys (they are merely two among thousands) to provide me with what I need in terms of accurate science. But, I can understand that you remain sceptical, it is in our human nature to ask questions, and this is a good thing.

    In terms of Australia's output of GHG in relation to total global output, yes it is true that we are a small player. However, in terms of per capita output, we are now the worst in the world (see: https://www1.voanews.com/english/news/a- ... 93227.html). I agree with you the those who can least afford it are going to have to (somehow) pay for those that are more affluent - nothing much ever changes in that regard. "The rich get richer, the poor get the picture" (my apologies to the bald-headed one).

    Because we are the dirtiest in the world, we should lead by example and seriously work towards halting our output. We can do this, in a manner that does not leave those that are economically vulnerable in any worse off position, but unfortunately we are not going to do it with the CPRS (or ETS, as it is commonly called). Probably the most important work that we can do, Len, is keep working on our permaculture projects, and leave the science up to the scientists. Oh, and we can also work at finding better ways of governing our communities, our nation, and our planet. Self-governance is a good start, I reckon.

    Yes, the USA does need to follow our (yet-to-be presented) lead, and this may come as a surprise to you, but China is in fact working very hard at reducing its total GHG output (see, for example: https://www.ccap.org/docs/resources/634/ ... sector.pdf).

    It's not a "new science", mate. We have known for over 100-years of the theory that human-induced climate change through the increase in GHG emissions is possible. Now that theory is indisputable.

    There are many reasons as to why people are attracted to anthropogenic climate change denial scenarios, and I don't want to get into it because it is rather negative stuff. But anyway, my friend, just a few thoughts for you. At the end of the day you must follow your own beliefs.

    Cheerio, Marko.
     
  11. gardenlen

    gardenlen Group for banned users

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    Re: Climate change happening fast

    yes mark,

    it is a theory and that is all it can ever be, a theory that has been derived from parameters created by the science for the science and within those parameters of course their models will always support their theory.

    but they still can't explain how australia stopping its less that 2% contribution is going to do much on the big stage, nor can they say how long it will take to fix by throwing money at it and making carbon a commodity. read hans christian anderson's stroy "the emporers new clothes" that is the type of theory that this is, all it will deliver is a lot of pain and abject misery for nought, and faceless because when this can be seen in oh i dunno 50 or 100 years time they will not be seen for dust, yet they would have lived well promoting this gossamer suit.

    the big polluters are hiding.

    len
     
  12. ecodharmamark

    ecodharmamark Junior Member

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    Re: Climate change happening fast

    G'day Len

    It was a theory for a long time, but now the observable evidence (for some time) has tipped the scales in favour of scientific fact - anthropogenic climate change is real, demonstrable science. Scientists spend their lives trying to disprove their hypothesis, not the other way around. I respect your right to believe otherwise, but I fear that you may have been influenced by factors other than science. That's OK. You are free to believe what ever you like. I will not debate the merits of the science with you any further, because as far as I am concerned, there is nothing to debate.

    Who's "they", Len? Scientists? Politicians? Economists? The bloke down the road? Have you read the Garnaut Report (see: https://www.garnautreview.org.au/index.htm), or more importantly, what he has to say in light of recent events? Garnaut is appalled (see, for many examples: https://www.rossgarnaut.com.au/ClimateChange.html) with the hollowed out, gutted version of his policy framework that the politicians are scrapping over as we write. You should know, I am no supporter of government - any government - and when decisions like this are made it only goes to strengthen my belief that we 'get the government you deserve' (vote for). We give up out right to have a say about these matters - we abrogate our freedom to oppose these ludicrous situation - when we buy into the neo-liberal's so-called 'social contact'. Sorry, I am ranting, but this is exactly the scenario where people should start to wake up and 'smell the roses', because what they are in fact smelling is, a 'big pile of steaming shit'!

    Yes mate, I remember only too well reading it as a child. It seems that you are now referring again to science, or scientists? Their names and work will go down in history, as did those that first devised the theory of anthropogenic climate change 100-years ago. Similarly, when Galileo first proposed that Earth was indeed spherical, and that it revolved around the sun, and not the other way round, the 'flat earthers' (the 'sceptics' and 'deniers' of the time) gave him a hell of a time (see: https://www-history.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/Mat ... lileo.html). But of course, we all now know that Earth is not flat, and today Galileo is held up as the father heliocentricity. The lesson I have presented here is course, but the essence of Galileo's work gives us a finer understanding: "All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered; the point is to discover them" (source: https://www-history.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/Quo ... lileo.html).

    Actually, they are quite visible. Those that stand to lose the most in terms of capital, are very easy to spot. They have been imploring the so-called leaders of our world for years now for 'compensation', or in the case of the Australian government's CPRS, free permits to pollute - which (in Australia's case) adds up to $100 billion - enough to convert our entire electrical energy supply system to renewables in 7-years! (see, for example: https://kn.theiet.org/magazine/issues/09 ... n-0913.cfm). If they are "hiding" from you, Len, it's like Galileo said, "...the point is to discover them".

    Cheerio, and have a good day, Marko.
     
  13. "Demonstrable" eh... do tell where this demonstrable proof be ... ah looks high, ah looks low, though nought to be found of this AGW fairy tale...

    I do find a lot of AGW profiteers following the Al Gore lead tho... money, money, money, turn ya carbon into money... :D
     
  14. Rob Windt

    Rob Windt Junior Member

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  15. Dreamie

    Dreamie Junior Member

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    Yes but I don’t want to do it so that the climate believers can in 40 years say look we saved the planet we wouldn’t be here if we hadn’t reduced carbon emissions. I want to do it for the environment not some theory.

    I also don’t want to be forced to by some ETS, it should be up to me to do it based on what I believe not on what some politician trying to win votes believes.

    A bit of reading for you all.

    https://joannenova.com.au/global-warming/
     
  16. Dreamie

    Dreamie Junior Member

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    I don’t think anyone disagrees this is as a result of the earth warming.

    So the models underestimate the natural cycles of the earth rather than the contribution of CO2? The IPCC have been trying to say that CO2 is the biggest contributor to climate change and now that their models are wrong they say their models are underestimates wouldn’t it be more logical to conclude that the models underestimate the natural cycle of the earth.

    Again a contribution from the natural warming of the planet. Man those models are fairly inaccurate.

    Cool they can measure the amount of CO2 in the environment.

    This is the IPCC trying to link cause and effect. A normal person would read these statements and believe there is a direct link between the above statements that is the persuasive nature of the IPCC. However there has been no proven link and even the models are not working.

    Without actual empirical evidence we will keep seeing cause and effect links like the above that do nothing to support the climate change argument.
     
  17. springtide

    springtide Junior Member

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    Does anyone here honestly believe that the general public are going to change their evil ways and live a bit more sustainably without the threat of climate change?........
     
  18. Grahame

    Grahame Senior Member

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    Seems to me even the threat of climate change has little motivational force for the general public to change their evil ways
     
  19. Hmmm, ah would'nt think of "climate change" as a threat. The climate always changes...Hotter... Colder... Climate change is just a constant that has been around forever.

    Is a hotter climate a concern... Greenland was settled and farmed by the Vikings during a warmer then today climate period that lasted a few hundred years. The Vikings were forced out (or died out ?) of Greenland when we had a mini ice age. I'm thinking warmer is better... :cool:



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