Our reality is THE reality

Discussion in 'The big picture' started by heuristics, Sep 19, 2008.

  1. heuristics

    heuristics Junior Member

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    Hi all,
    So as has been predicted so comprehensively by so many "alternative" thinkers (Holmgren being just one of a large and impressive cohort), the financial sewer that is Wall Street and the "global economy" is this week imploding spectacularly.

    I dont know whether to laugh, gloat, cry or scream as I watch and hear "financial analysts" pontificate in the MSM, watch their shocked faces and hear them say "This could not have been predicted" and similar nonsense.

    Maybe now the financial world has crashed so spectacularly, we can say to the General Public and MSM: "Now that we have your attention- please take note of what is KNOWN and predicted with regard to Peak Oil and Climate Change".

    BTW Tim Flannery is to appear on Andrew Denton Monday Sept 22. As many would know the one time Australian of the Year has been dismissed as an "alarmist", but maybe now more heed will be paid to his wisdom.

    Wall Street events this week have proved that when a crash happens it CAN happen with electric speed. No "soft landings" here as the economists were soothing us with back at the start of the Sub-Prime fiasco last year.

    The "great delusion" we are being sold this week is that "Australia is safe. Our fundamentals are sound. We can ride it out on the back of our strong economy and mining exports".
    Dont believe it for a minute. Get ready.
    Read "The Great Crash of 1929" for background.
    Read "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man"
    Read "Petrodollar Warfare"
    Daily read Roubini's economic monitor online.
    Be informed
    And get that permie garden HAPPENING NOW!

    Good luck to all fellow permies - no-one likes to hear "told you so", but, given what Mollison, Holmgren and so many others have been warning us of since the 70s, can we be forgiven if we indulge in a little bit of "told you so" smugness.
    For decades the permie/organic/ biodynamic reality was ridiculed and denounced.
    Now we can take comfort that our reality is THE reality.
     
  2. milifestyle

    milifestyle New Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    I don't usually do "Well said" posts. I'll make an exception here...

    Bloody well said... :)
     
  3. heuristics

    heuristics Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    Excellent segment on ABC-TV 7.30pm Report Sept 18 regarding biodynamic farming in Victoria.
    Of course the prime motivation by the farmers now interested was driven by the exponential price rise for synthetic “”””conventional!””” fertilisers.
    A “now we are going broke fast, we’ll try anything – even this weirdo stuff” attitude was the underlying message from some who are tentatively trying out this “radical” method.
    Cue shots of [really weird stuff, like… er…. a huge compost worm pile!]
    One day, one day, one day we will look back at mechanised-industrial-chemical farming and it will be the method that is considered “weird” and “bizarre”.
    Surely this day will come soon.

    [Thanks Milifestyle for above post]
     
  4. milifestyle

    milifestyle New Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    I'm on another forum for lawn mowing (INDY) and i am somewhat like an elephant in a cage full of tigers.

    Most guys seem to look for the easy way out and think "I'll deal with the problems if they happen"

    I'm taking a pro-active approach (compared to most contractors re-active approach). I'm earning a heck of a lot less, but God, i feel good about myself at the end of the day.
     
  5. Tezza

    Tezza Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    Hello Heuristics...notice the name change 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) ..


    yes i cant agree with your more.....

    when pollies say theres nothing to worry about .....WE KNOW that its time to worry...

    glsd i dont have thousands or millions stashed away like a lot of other poor buggers..im too broke to have savings in a bank...

    my bank account is my garden......this is more Interesting... sorry for the pun..

    one bit of good news .....we will cease to be a nation of fat buggers and obesity will be something not many will suffer anymore....

    thatll cheer up 1/2 the population at least...

    A soon to be even more skinny Tezza :rolleyes:
     
  6. heuristics

    heuristics Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    aw, Tezza, I kinda liked it when you usta call me "heretic"... at one point I thought "I wish I'd used that atavar instead" - it kinda captured the idea that where-ever I have been working in a ""9-5" job I have been the "heretic" - talking "nonsense" and "weird stuff" about Peak Oil and Permaculture and well - basically all the /crazy/ ideas that get discussed here every day.

    I have missed my regular visits to this Permie board - at my current job I cant spend too much time on line on these sort of sites, and I no longer have a computer at home.
    But
    "End of the world as we know it" events like what's going on this week get me seeking out the board and the companionship of the rainbow coalition of people thinking outside the mainstream that can be found here.

    Like many, I knew this week was coming.
    I didnt know when, but I have been watching the MSM news this year and have just been waiting....
    Now it is here it is a bit of an anti-climax. (!)

    I wanted the world to be a "better" place, and adopt sustainable practices, but the "drive over the cliff at mach one" scenario that we have happening right now wont be pretty for anyone.

    Have just been re-visiting David Holmgren's "Future scenarios" website.... I think we are in for the "lifeboats" scenario because so few - if anyone - is really prepared for what we are going to see unfold now in the next decade.

    Back in 2005 I discovered Nouriel Roubini, and have been reading his website religiously. Everything he has been predicting is now unfolding... this is what he said on the Oil Drum website Sept 17 :

    Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics

    This will turn out to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the worst US recession in decades.

    This is not just a sub-prime mortgage crisis, this is the crisis of an entire sub-prime financial system, and at the end of the day it will imply credit losses of at least $1trn (£561bn) and more likely $2trn.

    As I predicted months ago, no independent broker-dealer will survive. In the credit default swaps market, $62trn of nominal protection sits on top an outstanding stock of only $6trn of bonds, and counter-party risk – and the collapse of many counterparties – will lead to a systemic collapse of this market.

    Hundreds of small banks with massive exposure to real estate will go bust, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp will for sure run out of money. Hundreds of US municipalities will go bust. Equity prices in the US and abroad will go much deeper in to bear territory.

    In a typical US recession, equity prices fall by an average 28 per cent relative to the peak, but this is not a typical US recession. Equity prices will fall 40 per cent relative to their peak, so we are only barely mid-way in the meltdown of US and global stock markets.

    The rest of the world will not de-couple from the US recession. Already 12 major economies are on the way to a recessionary hard landing. All of the G7 economies are now entering recession, while the rest of the world will experience a severe growth slowdown. This financial crisis signals the beginning of the decline of the American empire.
     
  7. Tezza

    Tezza Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    AWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW heretic...never knew you cared, lol...Good to see you posting again....

    hoping a lot of the regulers come back online again when they see whats really happening now......ive been away as well too,

    a few of us have drifted away,but like bent pennies they allways return....lets hope we can get a few more out of the shadows and back posting again


    Tezza
     
  8. frosty

    frosty Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    Gday Heuristics and Tezza

    good to see you both back here :D

    and great post Heuri

    I am getting sick of hearing the plaitudes and lies on the MSM - and now as I type this they are saying its all over - :axe:
    I want to scream out CUT THE BS !

    and there are so many stupid people who believe them :evil:

    I have to admit I not be sorry to watch the downfall of America's culture of greed and corruption :axe: BRING IT ON ! the only hope we ll have to save the planet is that the US goes broke before they destroy us

    we are (I hope ) prepared - all that worries me is what to do with the little bit of super we have left in the bank ( bank not super fund !) but I cant see banks being safe ............ I just dont know when to jump

    frosty
     
  9. Tezza

    Tezza Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    Hi Frosty how are you both?


    DUHHHHHHHHHHHHH whats this MSM stuff?....Is it main stream media? :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

    Tezza
     
  10. frosty

    frosty Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    we are fine thanks Tezza :D

    how are things down there ?

    and yep MSM is main stream media although personally it also stands for Mighty Stupid Manipulators :lol: :lol: :lol:

    frosty
     
  11. Tezza

    Tezza Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    yeah hi frosty

    duhhhhhh me...Im fine but getting there..still not forgotton my visit to you both....

    this time we might both get up me and mrs Tezza lol....in our pop up caravan....hopefully before xmas and school hols..

    i cant think of other words for the m.s.m but not in public :axe: :lol: :lol: :lol: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:


    Catch ya soon hopefully


    Tezza
     
  12. JoanVL

    JoanVL Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    I'm truly relieved we are on the pension, and have a big food garden. All this finance angst passes us by, but i have to admit to a degree of schadenfreude, watching the greed merchants' houses of cards tumble.
     
  13. frosty

    frosty Junior Member

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    Sounds great :D :D we will be looking forward to it !!

    frosty
     
  14. helenlee

    helenlee Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    Is there anyone on this forum who has time to explain in layman’s terms the potential consequences in Australia?
    For instance, what might it mean for real estate? food? employment? personal bank deposits?
    Thank you in advance,
    Helen
     
  15. heuristics

    heuristics Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    Hi Helen,
    Check out David Holmgren's site regarding "scenarios" - his concept is around the future in an age of declining Oil, but Peak Oil will follow hard on the heals of this current constructed "Peak Credit" crisis. (Myself, I am prepared to believe this Peak Credit crisis has been constructed to divert attention from Peak Oil, and any future consequences of Peak Oil can be attributed to Peak Credit and sub-prime.)***

    Talk to people who grew up during the Great Depression. My parents were children during the GD. Most people who experienced the GD spent the rest of their lives hording - it was the Baby Boom generation born after the war that never knew hardship that became prolifigate with resources.

    My Mum talked often about the GD - she says her family were "lucky" as her Dad had a job - but his wages got cut and cut and they had to make do with less and less. She talks about salivating over a rare treat - a banana - and the family would get one square of chocolate as a treat every Friday night. (Not a block, but just equivalent of ONE of those standard Cadbury block squares.) My Mum left school at 14 to work - as did most of her generation.

    My Dad was taken from school at 11 and sent to work. There was no money for school or shoes, and as he was a boy, he was expected to work and contribute all his wage to the survival of the family. The difference between my Dad and Mum's recollection of the GD was Mum and her family (who were suburban based) went hungry - they didnt starve, but food was expensive and they had to limit what they ate.
    Dad lived on a farm and they had their own eggs, butter, oranges, beans, peas, pumpkins, chokos and other fruit and veges. They didnt go hungry, but they had "nothing".
    Like many families they took in boarders to supplement the family income, so my Dad had to sleep on an open verandah - years later when he was an old man dying, I was able to go back to his family home (the people who were the owners were generous to allow us to take Dad back) for a visit. He walked us through the old home and showed me where he had slept as a child - a southern facing open verandah - Sydney weather - I couldnt imagine sleeping there with just 2 woollen blankets.
    And I think that will be one of the major changes - so few of us will be equipped to cope with such a lowering of our standard of living. Expect today a child of age 6-7-8-9 to sleep on that verandah in the middle of winter with 2 blankets, and you'd be reported to DOCs.
    It will be hard to really predict the future because we have so much "more" than the 1930s. ie/ DVDS on demand versus movies at the theatre once a blue moon. (This is a superficial example, but our lives are just so much more technological then they were in my parents day).

    Read the Great Crash of 1929 by JK Galibraith (get your library to order it in).
    Talk to people who can remember the Depression. Ask them what they did to survive.
    Get out of Debt. NOW.
    Get that home garden functioning. Work with neighbours/friends/relatives to have a network of support for food and resources.
    Start learning how to make do with less.
    Start hoarding things that have intrinsic value ie/ are practical and will be expensive.
    Teach your children to learn a trade and be flexible and adaptable. Toughen them up a bit. Develop resilience (ie/ can they cope without McDonalds and ipods and flush toilets and all the conviences of a comfortable suburan Western life? )

    Understand now just how fantastically rapidly situations can change.

    See the New York Times article on Nouriel Roubini. He addressed a roomful of top New York financiers in 2006 and was deemed a certifiable madman for his extreme predictions. Today of course his seen as a visionary, as his most extreme predictions have been shown to be moderate compared to what has actually occured in the financial markets this last month.

    I think this is a lesson for Climate Change and for Peak Oil.

    Tim Flannery on Andrew Denton (Sept 22) said that the "extreme" predictions scientists were making a few years back have been overtaken by what is actually happening - ie, the polar ice is melting FAR more rapidly than even their worst "worst case" scenarious dared to predict.

    Same too with Peak Oil. We are now in the final months of 2008. It is fairly accepted that we have already "peaked" - exactly when only a rear window will reveal precisely, but look at all the prediction charts - 2010 - 2015 - the decline is predicted to be rapid. But what if, once again, the "extreme" predictions are really quite conservative? What if the decline is as rapid and dramatic as the financial markets of this month????

    We anticipate things will change gradually - but what if they dont?
    And in reality, we've known all this since the 1970s. (It was in part the Club of Rome "Limits to Growth" report that provided a catalyst to Mollison and Holmgren to propose permaculture as a way to respond to these anticipated changes).
    In terms of history the period from 1970 to 2010 will seem very short. 40 years. Less than half an "average" Western lifespan.
    We've know the crash has been coming for decades, but we've put the foot on the acelerator, not the brake.

    ***{{Why do I believe this Peak Credit crisis is "constructed".}}
    A number of reasons, and this is already a long post, so I will stick to just this one:
    Lehman Bros was allowed to "fail" and declare bankruptcy. But where in the MSM have you read that Lehman was allowed to trade on the Sunday before the crash? I thought the stock market operated only during certain hours - and it does for the Mom and Pop mug punters.
    But for the real serious money and serious investors - they were able to get their money out in the months, weeks, days and HOURS before the crash.
    Lehman still paid several billion in bonuses to its senior management!
    Once Lehman crashed (on the Monday, when the NY stock market officially opened) the Bush Government and the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank of New York were able to declare a "crisis" and implement some extremely tough rules and regulations that completely make a break with the way the stockmarket has operated for the past century.
    There is just SO MUCH to write about all of what has happened behind the scenes with regard to this Peak Credit crisis - but everything I have been able to discover only confirms my view that what we are supposed to "see" and suppose to believe bears almost no relationship with what is actually happening.
    I have discovered all this via google - it's all out there to be discovered if you have the time and the preparedness to question question question what you discover.
    Just start by knowing that Big Money will do anything to protect its own interests - at the detriment of the greater global population.
     
  16. helenlee

    helenlee Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    Hi heuristics,

    Thanks for the response. I appreciate your time, especially as you now don't have the net at home.
    Both my parents were children during the depression also & I was raised not only on frugal living as daily life, but all the "legends" & "glory days" stories as well :) It's funny how people remember the hard times with such affection & warmth. Hard times, I think, have been a central theme for my life & I've watched this celebrated in many ways. One of the most memorable was when a 70 something year old gentleman presented my Grandmother with a gift at her 90th birthday party. It was a wooden serving tray he had made & on it was a selection of food he had cooked. His speech was deeply moving - he said the gift symbolized my grandmothers unending generosity to his family & many others in the district during the depression. My grandma & her children lived on a dairy farm with my great grandparents while grandpa worked on a neighboring sheep property, & sometimes on the shire council. They fed many people who needed help & my mother remembers they often had gypsy’s camp on their property (they were not welcomed by most people). My grandparents also raised several of my cousins as their own when their parents couldn't keep them because of poverty.
    My mother says she was barely aware of the depression. There was always plenty of food & love to go around, just no money. My great aunt, however, lived in the city in Sydney & remembers it very differently. She remembers almost starving.

    I raised my kids in the bush because I wanted them to understand their connection to the planet & everything on it. (I never wanted them to think that they could sh*t in water, press a button, & have it magically disappear, for instance.) Like most hippie kids, they couldn't get out of there fast enough, but I think the things they learned when they were little will stand them in good steed in later life (not too much later, as things have turned out!).

    I've never had much faith in the consumer culture religion that's swept the western world. (OK - I do own a couple of silly frilly bras & my "real" hippie girlfriends would dob me in for wearing mascara - but I try to keep it down to a dull roar!) If the (un)real world stopped tomorrow, my husband & I would survive. Between us we have the skills to survive in a "Mad Max" scenario. In fact, we'd probably be happier than we are now because our skills & interests make us people the neighbors think of as kinda weird. (I do worry about things like dental pain, appendicitis & cancer, if the yoghurt really does hit the fan. Does anyone on this forum know how to extract teeth?!!!)

    My main curiosity is more about time frames & the likelihood of particular scenarios I suppose.
    For instance:
    By the end of this year I will hopefully have received some money as compensation after a serious "accident" at work. I would like to buy some land with it. I've done a Cert 4 in Permaculture, a Sustainable Communities course & have several friends living on various land sharing & private property arrangements, as well as the in-'laws who have several large "mainstream" rural production properties. So I'm familiar with lots of the issues around what & where to buy. But how do I figure out what the property market is going to do? And how do I know if the money I'm hoping to get will be worth anything by the time I get it? And how do I know I will actually be paid, given that I'll be paid, I assume, by the defendants insurance company? And if I do get it, can I put it in the bank while I'm looking for the right land? How do I know the bank will still have it when I need it?

    Sorry if this seems a bit "Cat Weaselish". I'm rather wet behind the ears when it comes to global financial markets. I've been on the net for days reading all I can, but this is kinda out of my league. Damn, it's out of many of the expert’s league! Why am I reading so many conflicting opinions on the potential consequences & flow on effects of the current crisis? (apart from the obvious self interest, ass-covering, boot licking & general inability to begin to conceive the potential ramifications etc)

    Apart from essential infrastructure such as alternative energy systems, water storage, food production etc, how do I know when to begin to stock up on consumables? I mean, I don't have the space to store Armageddon quantities of stuff. (good excuse to buy bra's though! :)) I don't think I want to make my own - although I do have an old book with patterns for lingerie as well as many "mend & make do" techniques such as making a child’s coat out of your old mans cricket pants, turning a jacket, & making maternity wear out of 2 of your old day dresses!!!)

    And should I buy a new laptop? I mean, I love the net, but will I be able to access it if there are no contractors to keep the phone lines repaired?

    Any help to find true north through the thickening smoke & mirrors (pardon my mixed metaphors) would be greatly appreciated :)

    Helen
     
  17. gemjill

    gemjill Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    G'day
    yeah capitalism, dontcha love it?
    Massive banks go bankrupt by loaning money to people who can't afford to pay it back, and so the government bails out the banks.
    The privatisation of profit and the socialisation of loss.
    The US taxpayers courtesy of the US govt is buying all the 'sub prime' loans, thus leaving the banks with all the profitable loans.
    Pure hyprocrisy, when everything else is left to the might of the 'market'.
    My advice would be to strive to be as independent as possible from energy providers, banks, govts, food producers etc. Easier said than done, but there may be rocky days ahead
    cheers
     
  18. tomintaz.

    tomintaz. Junior Member

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    you MUST diversify from cash into GOLD !!

    This is about as layman as i can put it DON'T PANIC - GET GOLD - this is not a JOKE !!

    EVERYONE go immediately to this website https://www.lemetropolecafe.com and sign up for the 2 week free trial and get all this wisdom from People in the know

    If you are genuine about your (familiy) prospects NOW; not just in the future, you must understand Economics {period}.
    must see

    [​IMG]

    https://au.youtube.com/watch?v=6G3Qefbt0n4
    https://au.youtube.com/watch?v=_dmPchuXIXQ&feature=related
    https://au.youtube.com/watch?v=l9uPEeVQ5Yc
    https://www.321gold.com/

    I also refer a prior post, of 'Tue Sep 26, 2006' of which someone just didn't get !
    https://www.forums.permaculture.org.au/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=3331&st=0&sk=t&sd=a :)

    cheers
    Tom
     
  19. RobWindt

    RobWindt Junior Member

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  20. helenlee

    helenlee Junior Member

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    Re: Our reality is THE reality

    Hi Rob,

    Thanks for the links :)
    Extracting teeth made my eyes pop but it was Ran Prieur who made them water :)
    (I cried when I read the words "Find Your Tribe" in "How to Survive the Crash & Save The Earth.")
    I don't think I'm the only one here who deeply feels the terrible loss of family, community & a meaningful life. Won't it be fantastic if after the crash no one could afford to build those dumb 6 foot fences or speed past their neighbour in the 8 cylinder anymore?
     

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